Dispatch 69 – Ceasefire Holds

U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy (WAGB 20) transits the Puget Sound en route to the Arctic region, June 19, 2025. The Healy will conduct high latitude science and research missions in the Arctic. (U.S. Coast Guard photo by Petty Officer 2nd Class Briana Carter)

Dispatch 69 – Ceasefire Holds

Mike Schuler
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June 28, 2025
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Dispatch No. 69


Hello Club Members! Here is your weekly Dispatch with all the maritime news you need to know to end your week.

Ship Photo of The Week

U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy (WAGB 20) transits the Puget Sound en route to the Arctic region, June 19, 2025. The Healy will conduct high latitude science and research missions in the Arctic. (U.S. Coast Guard photo by Petty Officer 2nd Class Briana Carter)

Top Stories

Hormuz Traffic Rebounds as Trump-Brokered Ceasefire Eases Gulf Tensions

Shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz has surged after a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran—brokered and announced unexpectedly by U.S. President Donald Trump—appears to be holding, calming concerns about shipping disruptions through one of the world’s most critical chokepoints for oil.

The 12-day war, which began with Israeli missile strikes on Iran and escalated last weekend with U.S. “bunker buster” strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, had pushed oil prices higher and sent VLCC rates soaring past $60,000 per day. By Tuesday—just a day after the truce took effect—commercial traffic jumped 30%, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center, after hitting conflict-lows a day earlier over fears of Iran’s response to U.S. strikes.

Brent crude has since stabilized at around $68, while tanker rates slipped back toward $50,000/day. War risk insurance premiums have also eased. “Whilst war premiums are still significant, improved political signals and insurer capacity are pushing rates down,” said David Smith of McGill and Partners.

Still, tension hasn’t vanished. Dozens of ships have broadcasted atypical AIS messages—labeling themselves as “China owned” or “Russian crude”—in hopes of avoiding Iranian ire, according to Windward. The firm recorded 101 such messages between June 12–24, coming amid a shocking surge in navigation system interference in the region since the war began.

The ceasefire itself remains precarious. Trump’s all-caps Truth Social warnings—“DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS”—were directed squarely at Israel after post-truce strikes on Iranian radar sites. Iran, too, fired missiles just minutes before the ceasefire deadline.

Despite the chaos, both sides appear to be honoring the agreement. For now, the Gulf is quieter and near-normal shipping volumes have returned to Hormuz—but if history is any indication, the volatile situation in the region remains far from over.

Trump Hints at Softer Sanctions as Iranian Oil Flows to China Surge

China has continued to buy up nearly all of Iran’s oil even as U.S. sanctions technically remain in place. Following the Trump-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the president signaled a possible major enforcement shift, posting on Truth Social: “China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran.”

The White House later walked that back, insisting formal “maximum pressure” sanctions still apply. But the market got the message—oil prices dropped as traders priced in more Iranian barrels.

Ship-tracking firms report China imported over 1.8 million barrels per day of Iranian crude in June, hitting record highs. Discounts for Iranian Light crude are narrowing, suggesting tighter supply fears as tankers navigate a still-tense Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts call Trump’s move a return to “lax enforcement.” Official relief may hinge on upcoming nuclear talks, but for now, Tehran’s tankers are sailing—and China is is continuing to buy.

Clock Ticking on Trump’s Tariff Ultimatum

With just two weeks left until President Trump’s self-imposed “Liberation Day” tariff deadline, global trade talks are scrambling. Only the UK has sealed a deal—keeping 10% tariffs but leaving steel duties unresolved—while other countries face steep hikes if no agreement is reached by July 9.

China has a temporary truce through mid-August, but talks with the EU, India, Japan, and South Korea remain gridlocked. Vietnam is close to a deal, and Malaysia hopes to lock in sub-10% rates before the clock runs out. Thailand, Canada, and Mexico are also racing to finalize terms amid uncertainty and rising political pressure.

Trump’s legal authority is being challenged in court, but businesses aren’t waiting—many have rushed to front-load imports ahead of what could be a disruptive tariff shock.

Stressed at Sea: Crew Deaths Rise Post-COVID, Says Gard

Norwegian marine insurer Gard has flagged a worrying 25% spike in crew fatalities since the pandemic, according to its latest Crew Claims Report. Based on 3,000 claims and survey data from 6,000+ seafarers across 46 nationalities, the report found illness was the leading cause of death in 2024 — and most of the top ailments are stress-related.

Even more troubling: suicides outpaced fatal accidents.

Gard’s medical experts say lack of rest, isolation, and poor mental health are hurting both lives and ship safety. “Seafarers are the backbone of global trade,” said CEO Rolf Thore Roppestad, calling for industry-wide focus on wellbeing. The full report is now online.

Burned and Gone: Car Carrier Morning Midas Sinks After Fire

The Morning Midas, a Liberian-flagged car carrier, has sunk in the North Pacific nearly three weeks after a fire broke out onboard, salvage firm Resolve Marine confirmed. The vessel went down on June 23 in waters 5,000 meters deep and 360 nautical miles from land, after fire damage and rough seas led to catastrophic flooding.

The ship had been smoldering since June 3, when a blaze began on a deck loaded with electric and hybrid vehicles en route from China to Mexico. All 22 crew were safely rescued by a nearby merchant vessel.

The 600-foot vessel was carrying over 3,100 vehicles and nearly 1,900 metric tons of fuel. Pollution-monitoring tugs remain on site, with a dedicated response vessel en route as a precaution.

The Morning Midas joins a growing list of car carriers lost to fire in recent years — including the Felicity Ace, which also sank.

Hong Kong Shipbreaking Rules Kick In After 16-Year Wait

The Hong Kong Convention — the IMO’s long-awaited treaty on safe and environmentally sound ship recycling — officially entered into force on June 26, nearly two decades after it was first adopted.

The treaty sets global rules for how ships are dismantled at the end of their lives, including mandatory inventories of hazardous materials and recycling plans. Backed by countries representing over 57% of the world’s shipping tonnage, the convention is seen as a key step toward safer scrapping practices.

But not everyone is cheering. Critics like the NGO Shipbreaking Platform say the rules don’t go far enough, failing to ban the controversial “beaching” method still used in South Asia. Supporters, including BIMCO and the International Chamber of Shipping, call it a milestone — albeit one with work left to do.

With 15,000 ships expected to be recycled this decade, the pressure’s on for compliance — and reform.

Trump Eyes Finnish Icebreakers in Arctic Fleet Push

At the NATO summit in The Hague, President Trump confirmed the U.S. is negotiating with Finland to buy up to 15 icebreakers — including one used vessel “available now” — as part of a broader effort to rebuild America’s aging Arctic fleet.

“You are the king of icebreakers,” Trump told Finnish reporters, referencing a March meeting with President Stubb. But questions remain over which ship he meant — Finland’s only modern candidate, Polaris, isn’t suited for U.S. Coast Guard missions.

Meanwhile, Finland’s RMC is reportedly negotiating a $2.7B contract to build up to five new icebreakers, and Canadian-owned Davie is expanding icebreaker capacity in Texas. The Coast Guard says it needs up to nine polar icebreakers, with the first new addition — Storis — now en route to Alaska, while the existing USCGC Healy has departed on its annual Arctic deployment after last year’s mission was cut short due to an engine room fire.

Sanctioned LNG Tanker Heads for Arctic in Shadow Fleet Reboot

A U.S.-sanctioned LNG carrier, Iris—formerly North Sky—has entered Russia’s Northern Sea Route en route to Sabetta, raising alarms over renewed activity by Moscow’s shadow fleet. While AIS data lists Yamal LNG as its destination, experts suspect the real target is the heavily sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project.
The move marks the first sanctioned LNG carrier transit in the region since late 2024, signaling a potential resumption of Russian LNG exports via dark fleet operations. More than a dozen similar tankers had been idle for months, waiting out the Arctic winter and sanctions scrutiny.

If Iris calls at Yamal LNG, it would be a risky bet for project owner Novatek, possibly dragging the unsanctioned terminal into the sanctions dragnet. Meanwhile, flaring at Arctic LNG 2 suggests the plant is ready to ship—if buyers can be found.

Tanker Master Busts Crew in High-Seas Drug Sting

The MT Scot Bremen, a Maltese-flagged product tanker, became the center of a drug investigation after its Master uncovered suspected narcotics hidden by five crew members off the Belgian coast.

En route from Brazil, the vessel was anchored near Ostend when the Master discovered suspicious packages and promptly alerted authorities, canceled pilot boarding, and secured the suspects’ phones. Due to bad weather, Belgian officials boarded later in Zeebrugge on June 23 — and found a “significant” haul of narcotics.

The five crew members were detained, but the Master and shipowner were cleared and praised for professionalism. Scot Tankers says the ship will resume normal ops en route to Zelzate — with a new crew and a cleaner conscience.

As always, we’d love to hear your feedback. Email [email protected] with any questions, comments, tips, or concerns. Don’t forget to check out the Club Discord and gCaptain.com for the latest maritime news.


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