Equinor Sees Johan Sverdrup Oil Production Declining Over 10% in 2026

By Kari Lundgren and Alex Longley (Bloomberg) – Equinor ASA expects oil output from its Johan Sverdrup oil field, the largest source of European supply growth in the last decade, to fall this year.

Production will fall by between 10% and 20%, Chief Executive Officer Anders Opedal said at a media briefing on Wednesday. Exports from the field averaged 712,000 barrels a day last year, according to loading programs compiled by Bloomberg.

“We’ve been able to postpone the decline for a long time,” the executive said. “This year we anticipate a decline of more than 10%, but well below 20%.”

Shares of Equinor, which also on Wednesday announced lower share buyback, reversed earlier gains in Oslo. Aker BP ASA, which owns a 32% share of the field, saw shares fall as much as 3.7%.

The prospect of dwindling output in the key North Sea field is the latest reminder that, after a period of oversupply this year, global oil markets may struggle to keep pace with consumption in the years that follow. The International Energy Agency has warned that the world must spend $540 billion a year looking for oil and gas to offset the pace of declines in aging fields.

Equinor has managed to keep Sverdrup’s output elevated for a longer period than anticipated, Opedal said, adding that it’s now working to optimize output with new wells and other methods.

“This is greater than our previous 5% decline expectation,” RBC analyst Victoria McCulloch said in a note to investors. “Our revised forecasts assume about 13% year-on-year average decline in full year 2026.”

While Norway’s oil and gas production is due to remain around current levels through the end of the decade, lack of investment will result in a “significant downsizing” of the industry in the years to come, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate said in January.

© 2026 Bloomberg L.P.

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