Maritime Industry Demands Clarity on Hormuz Reopening as Mine Risks Persist

By Lori Ann LaRocco – Maritime organizations are demanding that the Trump administration provide clear guidance on how stranded vessels can safely leave the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking during Lloyd’s List’s weekly webinar on the Strait of Hormuz, INTERTANKO Marine Director Phillip Belcher stressed that the future of transit passage through the waterway remains unclear.

“The final draft is surprisingly very similar to the ones the Iranians put out at the beginning of this week,” Belcher said. “The main route, which should be open—the Traffic Separation Scheme through the middle of the Strait of Hormuz—that’s closed. That’s dangerous; that’s got mines in it. The latest figure we had this morning was 80 mines in the Strait of Hormuz, in the separation scheme itself. It’s an enormous number. It’s going to take some time to clear. Those two routes now seem to be fully open, but we’ve got limited capacity compared to the main Hormuz Channel.”

Belcher said the main channel, which remains closed, handled between 130 and 140 ships a day before the war. The two alternative routes currently in use do not have the capacity to accommodate that level of traffic.

“We’ve got limited capacity,” Belcher said. “Nowhere near as much as we used to have through the main Hormuz Channel. The U.S. routes, or the Omani route—the Southern Route—currently handle about 20 ships a day. The northern route carries around 10 ships at most, so by moving to a 24/7 process, vessel transits could increase to the 60, 70, or 80 per day range.”

Belcher explained that the Southern Route is essentially being used as a breakdown lane for vessels, while the main route running through the center of the Strait serves as the region’s maritime highway.

“We need to get back to having a highway open so we can get the volume of traffic through safely,” Belcher said. “One of the big issues we’ve got at the moment is navigational risk—the risk of running aground. It’s very close to the rocks on the Southern Route, the Omani route. You’ve got a collision risk.”

Belcher warned that interference with GPS signals is continuing, making satellite navigation, in his words, “utterly unreliable.”

“So, if everything starts to move now because people are getting more confidence, you could have a large number of ships going through a very small area with no control at all,” he said. “You have to make sure it’s safe to go through, and these are practical concerns—and they’re not insignificant.”

At its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide. The waterway is divided into two 2-mile-wide lanes—one inbound and one outbound—with a two-mile-wide buffer zone between them. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, only a six-mile-wide corridor is actively used by commercial and military vessels in the deep-water passage.

Future Control of the Strait

Belcher warned that the language of the Memorandum of Understanding regarding management of the Strait of Hormuz is concerning. Article 5 of the MoU states that no tolls will be charged during the first 60 days.

“Iran has been given the authority to have a dialogue with Oman and discussions with the littoral states of the Gulf to determine the future management of the Strait,” Belcher said. “So, in this agreement, the sole arbiter of what’s going to be happening to the Strait going forward is going to be Iran. That’s the authority this agreement has given them. Now, Iran is not a party to UNCLOS.”

Belcher said he hopes Iran will adopt the UNCLOS framework, which governs international maritime activities.

The Strait of Hormuz, the English Channel, the Strait of Dover and the Strait of Gibraltar do not charge transit tolls. Under the Law of the Sea, vessels enjoy the right of innocent passage through these waterways, and a coastal state’s territorial waters do not, by themselves, provide a basis for imposing transit tolls.

“No restrictions can be placed upon vessels,” Belcher said.

The maritime industry’s concern is that Iran could declare territorial waters and establish a toll system similar to the one it imposed during the conflict.

“The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea defines what is considered territorial waters,” Belcher said. “So now almost all the power goes back to Iran to determine the arrangements we’re going forward with in the future. This is what we really need to clarify. This has to be done for freedom of navigation. It has to be done for free. Otherwise, we can get into a real mess—not just here, but possibly in other parts of the world.”

The Strait of Malacca has also periodically seen discussions about monetizing vessel traffic.

Vessel Transits

Tomer Raanan, Maritime Risk Analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, said his team has tracked several vessels departing the region since the signing of the MoU, including ships operated by Grimaldi, COSCO, NYK Line, and an Iranian tanker moving through the U.S. blockade route.

Recent transits through the Strait of Hormuz have largely been conducted “dark.” Kpler tracked 10 vessels between Sunday and Tuesday, with the majority not transmitting AIS signals.

“The U.S. advice for ships transiting through the Omani route was to switch off all electronic means that would transmit a signal—for example, radars, AIS and long-range identification and tracking systems,” Belcher said. “Shipowners are going to be wary, and seafarers are going to be wary. Fourteen innocent merchant seafarers have been killed in this conflict. Many others have been injured in attacks launched by both Iran and the U.S. against ships, so people are going to be very cautious about getting out.”

One of the biggest questions surrounding the reopening is how vessels will be prioritized for departure. Belcher said that while there may be pressure to allow laden tankers to leave first, allowing any country to decide who sails and when runs counter to the principle of freedom of navigation.

“There’s no agency out there that can undertake that kind of control,” Belcher said. “Maybe there is a role for some bodies to take it on in the very, very near future. We need to get on and sort that out.”

Operational Issues

Another major concern is the seaworthiness of vessels that have remained stranded for more than 100 days in the warm waters of the Gulf.

Barnacles and algae have likely accumulated on hulls due to the prolonged lack of movement, potentially reducing speed and maneuverability. Hull cleaning may be necessary before vessels resume normal operations.

“It’s a real practical operational issue,” Belcher said. “Growth in barnacles and algae has to be removed because it can have a serious effect on a ship’s steaming speed. While vessels are waiting to go through, shipowners could have divers go down and scrape those bits off. It would be terrible if one of those ships broke down while going through some of the very narrow areas in Hormuz itself. That would resemble the container ship blocking the Suez Canal.”

INTERTANKO, along with BIMCO and the NATO Shipping Centre, has issued joint transit guidance and security advisories for the Strait of Hormuz. All have raised concerns over the lack of clarity surrounding future security arrangements.

Belcher said the organizations are closely monitoring geopolitical developments, including rhetoric from Washington and Tehran, as well as developments in Lebanon, which has been repeatedly mentioned during negotiations.

“We’re going to be looking at the geopolitics of this to make sure that we get a heads-up if there’s any indication that we could go back to conflict, which is a very real possibility here, unfortunately,” Belcher said.

Since U.S. President Donald Trump announced the agreement on Sunday, a Memorandum of Understanding has been unveiled, but little operational information has been provided regarding vessel transits.

A.P. Moller-Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said Thursday that the company has not yet resumed transits through the Strait of Hormuz.

In an interview with Euronews, Clerc said the circumstances surrounding the reopening may not become clear for several weeks.

“We don’t know where there will be obstacles to navigation, especially given the volumes we expect and the sizes of our ships,” Clerc said.

Jake Scott, COO of Easterly Clear Ocean, said the peace agreement remains fluid, forcing shipowners to react quickly as conditions evolve.

“In the short term, we could see elevated levels of transiting traffic if the ceasefire holds, given that the world has been deprived of a large part of its essential raw commodities,” Scott said. “But what the Iran-U.S. conflict has exposed is the fragility of the global supply chain, and it has highlighted the crucial role shipping plays in keeping the world’s economies and societies functioning. If and when the Strait returns to pre-war transit levels, commodity buyers may look to reduce concentration risk from Middle Eastern producers, creating new trade routes. This peace deal could be in the trash by Saturday as well.”

Editorial Standards · Corrections · About gCaptain