Forecasts for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30 each year, with a long-term average (based on the past three decades) of roughly 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. However, climate experts warn that 2025 could exceed these figures, mirroring or surpassing recent seasons that produced multiple high-intensity cyclones.

A major piece of the seasonal forecast puzzle is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In an El Niño phase, Pacific Ocean waters near the equator warm significantly, typically bringing increased wind shear over parts of the Atlantic. This shear can disrupt forming storms, reducing their frequency and intensity. With a neutral or weak La Niña pattern, on the other hand, the Atlantic faces lower wind shear, making it easier for storms to form and intensify.

Colorado State University (CSU) expects only a 13% chance of El Niño conditions emerging by peak season (August–October), meaning wind shear is likely to remain modest and the ocean environment primed for hurricane development.

CSU’s tropical cyclones team predicts:

• 17 named storms
• 9 hurricanes
• 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

They anticipate a 51% chance of a major hurricane striking the U.S., compared to the historical average of 43%.

AccuWeather projects:

• 13 to 18 named storms
• 7 to 10 hurricanes
• 3 to 5 major hurricanes
• 3 to 6 possible direct U.S. impacts

These estimates differ somewhat in the total number of storms, yet both sources agree that conditions are ripe for potentially explosive cyclones. Warm ocean waters across the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf could accelerate storm growth, making it essential for coastal residents and maritime operators alike to remain vigilant.

How Accurate Are Forecasts? Reviewing the 2024 Hurricane Season

Predictions for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season had initially called for an extremely active year, in some cases predicting 20 to 25 named storms with multiple major hurricanes. By the final count, 18 named storms formed—a slight dip from early expectations. However, what the season lacked in quantity, it more than made up for with several powerful hurricanes that collectively caused an estimated $200 billion in damage. 

Hurricane Beryl made headlines by forming unusually early, in the first week of June, defying typical seasonal patterns where the strongest storms often cluster between August and October. Beryl’s swift jump to hurricane status caught many by surprise, showing how ocean heat can fuel storm growth earlier in the season than expected. While Beryl’s winds mainly stayed offshore, it caused heavy rain and coastal flooding in the Windward Islands.

Despite Beryl’s opening barrage, late August into early September brought a quiet spell—one of the calmest stretches recorded during what is typically the heart of hurricane season. This gave some a false impression that the season might taper off quietly, but the lull was more of a reprieve than a prediction of what was to come.

Hurricane Helene (September 24-27)

Hurricane Helene developed shortly after the 2024 season’s dormant phase, becoming a Category 4 storm in just a few days. Making landfall along the Southeastern U.S. coast around early September, Helene unleashed extreme flooding, powerful winds, and even tornado outbreaks far inland—ultimately becoming one of the deadliest U.S. hurricanes in modern history. Tragically, Helene claimed at least 250 lives, primarily due to inland flash floods and storm surges in low-lying areas.

Hurricane Milton (October 5-10)

As the season approached its usual wind-down, Hurricane Milton formed in the Gulf of Mexico and rapidly intensified in under 36 hours. Milton’s landfall in Florida brought widespread flooding and more than 30 tornadoes, devastating communities still reeling from Helene’s impacts. Evacuations saved lives, but property damage soared, adding to the 2024 season’s cumulative costs.

Why These Predictions Matter

Every hurricane season poses challenges, but the 2025 outlook is especially concerning due to persistent warm waters and minimal wind shear. These conditions can significantly affect offshore facilities, ports, and cargo fleets.

The Gulf of Mexico and the deep tropics may stay warm well into fall, meaning a hurricane could intensify quickly. Shifting atmospheric patterns could also guide storms into areas historically considered lower risk. As we saw in 2024, multiple back-to-back hurricanes could overwhelm response teams and hamper rescue efforts.

Coastal regions face these risks head-on, as do maritime workers. Crews on fixed platforms, jack-up rigs, drillships, commercial fishing vessels, and massive cargo ships—as well as dock and harbor workers—may find themselves directly in harm’s way.

Looking Ahead

While the 2024 hurricane season ultimately tallied fewer storms than projected, it left no doubt about the destructive power a handful of major cyclones can wield. For 2025, CSU and AccuWeather both expect conditions that favor at least an average (and likely above-average) number of strong storms. Even a moderate total storm count could yield multiple Category 3+ hurricanes, posing threats to offshore operations, maritime and harbor workers, and coastal communities.

When it comes to Atlantic storms, preparation remains the best defense. Maritime employers can better protect their employees, assets, and the environment by leveraging technological advances in storm prediction, practicing thorough emergency protocols, and aligning operational decisions with the latest meteorological data. 

After all, it takes only one direct hit by a powerful hurricane to reshape an entire season’s narrative.

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As the nation’s leading maritime law firm, Arnold & Itkin has helped crews, families, and communities affected by every major offshore disaster over the past two decades. This includes more than one-third of the Deepwater Horizon crew, widows of the El Faro, and workers from the Globetrotter II, Deepwater Asgard, and countless other platforms and vessels. Founded by Attorneys Kurt Arnold and Jason Itkin in 2004, the firm has won more than $20 billion in verdicts and settlements for clients across the U.S.

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