U.S. Grain Exports Rise Despite Chinese Tariffs

U.S seaborne grain exports increased 9% year-over-year during the first half of 2025, despite significant challenges from Chinese tariffs, according to a new analysis from BIMCO.

“During the first half of 2025, US seaborne grain shipments increased 9% y/y, driven by stronger maize exports. While an increase in import tariffs led to a 57% y/y drop in volumes to China, the US has been able to find alternative markets for most of its cargoes,” said Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.???

China introduced retailitory tariffs on U.S. grain shipments in March in response to higher tariffs on Chinese imports announcement Trump Administration, dramatically reducing U.S. competitiveness in that market. The impact was immediate and substantial – U.S. grain shipments to China fell from 26% of total exports in the first half of 2024 to just 10% in 2025.???

To compensate, American exporters pivoted to alternative markets across Asia, Latin America, and the Mediterranean. However, this shift couldn’t fully offset losses in specific commodities heavily dependent on Chinese demand. U.S. soya bean exports dropped 10% year-over-year, while sorghum exports plummeted by 89%.???

The geographic redistribution of grain shipments has had mixed effects on the dry bulk shipping sector. While overall volumes increased, the industry experienced a 7% year-over-year decline in tonne mile demand due to shorter shipping distances.?, according to BIMCO.

“While the increase in volume was a positive for the dry bulk sector during the first half of 2025, tonne mile demand still fell 7% y/y, due to a 14% decrease in average sailing distances. The new destinations for US grains are on average closer to the US than China,” Gouveia explained.???

BIMCO notes that the reopening of Panama Canal routes for grain shipments following last year’s drought restrictions has further shortened average sailing distances.???

According to BIMCO, the distribution of vessel sizes handling U.S. grain cargoes this year shows panamax ships carrying 46%, supramax vessels 32%, and handysize ships 22%. While panamax and handysize segments saw increased tonne mile demand, the supramax segment experienced a significant 33% decline as it faced competition from panamax vessels in key markets like Japan and China.???

Looking ahead, BIMCO expects a seasonal increase in grain shipments following the U.S. harvest season. The USDA projects a 6% increase in maize production, though wheat and soya bean production are expected to see slight declines.???

“A seasonal uptick in grain shipments is expected over the rest of the year following the US harvests,” Gouveia noted. “Tighter global supplies of wheat and maize could help sustain shipments. However, finding alternative markets for soya beans and sorghum may remain a challenge. For soya beans, in particular, China is expected to continue favouring Brazilian cargoes, bolstered by Brazil’s growing production.”

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