Transpacific Defies Downtrend as Container Spot Rates Climb on War-Driven Demand

By Gavin van Marle (The Loadstar) – Container spot freight rates on the transpacific trade into the North America west coast managed to defy gravity and edge up this week, while most other east-west trades witnessed a third consecutive week of declines.

This week’s World Container Index (WCI) from Drewry showed its Shanghai-Los Angeles leg increasing 2% on the previous week, to end at $2,930 per 40ft, and meant it was now up 34% on the spot rate immediately prior to the outbreak of the Iran conflict.

Other indices show similar movements – The Freightos Terminal showed a Far East-US west coast rate reading of $2,675 per 40ft, with head analyst Judah Levine noting it was 45% up on the pre-war rate.

One forwarder, at the end of the TPM event in Long Beach at the end of March, which took place as the US and Israel launched their bombing campaign on Iran, told The Loadstar the quoted rate per 40ft for his 2026 annual contracts leaped by $1,000 overnight as a result of the conflict.

While he was derisive of that offer, it now appears carriers have largely managed to achieve that goal through a mixture of pricing discipline and capacity management, Xeneta head analysts Peter Sand tells The Loadstar in next Monday’s podcast.

Xeneta data shows Far East-US west coast and east coast rates up by an average 50% since the war started.

“Part of it is arguably due to the smart capacity management post-Chinese New Year, explained Mr Sand.

“But 50% up is also testament to the fact that carriers have successfully been pushing up rates amid all the uncertainty that shippers also had to handle,” he said, but added that there were some early signs of shippers replenishing inventory.

“It’s also shippers perhaps fearing that as we face the traditional peak season in the third quarter, there could massive congestion in the main hubs in South-east Asia.

“So a lot of shippers have decided ‘let’s move my goods forward’ – Adidas, for instance, is front-loading its cargo ahead of the World Cup [in the Americas],” he said, adding that this was a ‘better safe than sorry’ approach – ‘bring my goods in so I won’t run short at a later stage with some unforeseen headwind’.

However, the WCI’s Shanghai-New York leg lost 2% week on week, to end this week at $3,483 per 40ft, indicating that transpacific pricing trends are by no means uniform.

However, with CMA CGM implementing a $2,000 per 40ft peak season surcharge on all shipments from Asia to the US, there is the prospect of further increases next week.

On the Asia-Europe trades, the WCI’s Shanghai-Rotterdam and Shanghai-Genoa legs both declined 1% from the previous week, to end at $2,127 and $3,039 per 40ft, respectively.

Drewry said carriers had finally begun to address the overcapacity on the trades, with “seven blank sailings announced for the coming week”, with effective capacity expected to decline 3% month on month on Asia-North Europe, and 10% month on month on Asia-Mediterranean this month.

“Rates into North Europe and the Mediterranean peaked three weeks ago, and capacity is also up by 6%-9%, so it’s a mixed picture right now,” Mr Sand said.

While Drewry expects Asia-Europe spot rates to remain stable next week, a key date for freight buyers on the trade will be 15 May, when carriers will attempt a series of new FAK (freight all kinds) rates.

However, there is quite a spread between carrier ambitions: both Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM are aiming for $3,500 per 40ft to North Europe and around $4,500 per 40ft to the Mediterranean; and MSC has announced $4,400 per 40ft for both North Europe and the west Mediterranean.

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