Peak Season and Hormuz Crisis Fuel New Surge in Container Shipping Rates

Container freight rates are rising sharply across major east-west trades as the conflict in the Middle East, disruption at key Asian transshipment hubs, and growing fears of an energy crisis combine to tighten supply chains and fuel a new wave of market volatility.

According to the latest market update from Xeneta, average spot rates from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast climbed 20% over the past week to $3,933 per FEU, more than doubling since the onset of the Middle East crisis on February 28. Rates on the trade are now 109% higher than pre-conflict levels.

The surge extends well beyond routes directly affected by the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Far East-to-U.S. East Coast rates have risen 92% since late February to $5,103 per FEU, while rates from the Far East to North Europe and the Mediterranean have increased 65% and 51%, respectively.

Peter Sand, Xeneta’s chief analyst, said the latest increases reflect a market increasingly influenced by secondary effects of the Middle East conflict rather than direct disruptions to container shipping routes.

“The wave of freight rate increases is gathering momentum across global ocean container shipping trades, fueled by ongoing conflict in the Middle East and knock-on disruption in South East Asia ports, plus growing fears of an energy crisis in the second half of 2026,” Sand said.

Xeneta pointed to congestion at major transshipment hubs including Singapore and Port Klang, where carriers have been adjusting service networks and routing patterns in response to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.

“The freight rate increases are partly due to delays at major South East Asia ports including Singapore and Port Klang as services adjust to new networks and workarounds in response to the Strait of Hormuz blockade,” Sand said. “Port disruption is toxic for supply chains, especially at transshipment hubs with global significance.”

The disruption has spilled over into trades with no direct exposure to the Middle East, particularly the Transpacific, where carriers are seeing stronger demand and tighter vessel utilization.

Xeneta also warned that concerns over rising energy costs could trigger a fresh round of cargo frontloading later this year.

“The prospect of an energy crisis caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade and increasing oil prices may be enticing shippers to bring imports forward if they face higher manufacturing costs and higher freight rates later in the year,” Sand said.

If importers accelerate orders to get ahead of potential cost increases, Sand believes carriers will continue pushing rates higher.

“The market may yet be far from its peak across trades globally,” he said.

The latest assessment from shipping consultancy Drewry points to similar market dynamics.

Drewry’s World Container Index jumped 23% this week to $3,433 per 40-foot container, driven by steep gains on both Transpacific and Asia-Europe routes.

Spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles surged 31% to $4,565 per FEU, while Shanghai-to-New York rates increased 20% to $5,505. On Asia-Europe routes, rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 25% to $3,579, while Shanghai-to-Genoa rates climbed 20% to $5,089.

Drewry said the traditional peak shipping season appears to have started earlier than normal, supported by inventory replenishment, retailer promotions, and cargo moving ahead of anticipated tariff changes in the United States.

The firm also cited continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as a growing source of upward pressure on freight markets through higher bunker costs and fuel-related surcharges.

“East-West container freight markets are strengthening as the peak season arrives earlier than usual this year,” Drewry said. “Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to influence market sentiment, with higher bunker fuel costs and fuel surcharges exerting additional upward pressure on freight rates.”

The combination of early peak-season demand, congestion at key Asian hubs, and uncertainty surrounding energy markets has created conditions reminiscent of previous supply chain disruptions, raising concerns that freight rates could continue climbing through the summer months if geopolitical tensions continue.

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