A screenshot of a video showing fast-attack craft from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy swarming Panama-flagged oil tanker Niovi as it transited the Strait of Hormuz, May 3, 2023. U.S. Navy Photo
As the incoming Trump administration sets the stage for its foreign policy agenda, the maritime industry is bracing for the potential ripple effects of renewed U.S.-Iran tensions.
President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House could herald a new era of maritime security challenges in the Middle East, with Iran likely to respond to increased pressure through vessel harassment and seizures, according to a new analysis by Ambrey Analytics.
The maritime risk landscape is being shaped by Trump’s proposed foreign policy team, including Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense, Marco Rubio for Secretary of State, and Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor – all known as Iran hawks. This comes against the backdrop of reported Iranian assassination attempts against Trump in 2024.
Drawing parallels with Trump’s first term, when he pursued a “maximum pressure” campaign that included intensified sanctions and withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear deal, analysts expect a return to brinkmanship. However, the regional dynamics have shifted significantly, with the Iran-backed ‘Axis of Resistance’ considerably weakened following Israeli military actions in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.
“Shipping should prepare to operate in a heightened risk environment, which is complex and dynamic, an environment in which agility is critical,” warns Ambrey. The firm points to recent incidents, including a July 2023 case where an Iranian frigate fired upon a U.S.-affiliated tanker.
The oil trade landscape has also evolved since Trump’s last administration. China now receives almost all of Iranian oil exports, though at a significant discount, while only relying on Iran for approximately 13% of its total oil imports.
While Ambrey notes that direct U.S. military action is considered highly unlikely, with the exception perhaps of targeted assassinations, the security firm anticipates increased sanctions enforcement, though likely implemented piecemeal.
Vessels face risks of seizure and detention, with some ships previously held in Iranian anchorages for months.
Security experts at Ambrey recommend thorough affiliation checks for vessels transiting the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman, Arabian/Persian Gulf, and Indian Ocean regions, highlighting the need for enhanced security measures in this increasingly complex maritime environment.
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