China’s NewNew Polar Bear in a convoy in the Russian Arctic in October 2023. (Source: Atomflot)
By Malte Humpert (gCaptain) – Cargo volume on Russia’s main Arctic shipping lane continues to climb, although figures remain well below the targets originally defined by President Putin earlier in the decade. Western sanctions have delayed or put on hold a number of oil and gas projects negatively impacting overall cargo volume.
Total tonnage transported via the Northern Sea Route rose to 38 million tonnes, up from 35 Mt in 2023. Over the past decade cargo volume has increased ten-fold, from just 3.7 Mt in 2014, but has largely plateaued above 30 Mt since 2019.
Putin and government officials have repeatedly announced lofty goals of reaching 80 Mt by 2024, 190 Mt by 2030 and as high as 270 Mt by 2035. The development of oil and gas resources in Russia’s North goes hand in hand with Arctic shipping, laid out in a 2035 Northern Sea Route development plan approved two years ago.
With the Arctic LNG 2 mega project only partially completed and its shipping fleet largely blocked by U.S. sanctions, liquefied gas volume held largely steady at around 20 Mt primarily from the Yamal LNG project.
Originally Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project was scheduled to begin production in 2024 contributing up to 30 Mt to the Northern Sea Route during its first year. However, general project delays and the impact of sanctions, especially for ice-capable oil tankers, resulted in a two year delay. Headline production figures of up to 100 Mt by 2033 now seem unrealistic.
In 2025 cargo volume the NSR will likely see continued steady growth of a few million tonnes as additional volume from Arctic LNG 2 finds its way to market via the nascent LNG shadow fleet; though no buyers emerged throughout the second half of 2024.
Arctic transit cargo – shipments from Europe to Asia or vice versa – also saw record figures in 2024, reaching 3 Mt for the first time. In total the route recorded nearly 100 transits, almost exclusively between Russia and China; a sign of the increasing cooperation in the commercial as well as defense space in the Arctic between the two countries.
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