USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115) near what the U.S. Central Command said was a vessel attempting to sail to an Iranian port, as it enforces the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, at an unknown location, released April 24, 2026. U.S. Central Command/Handout via REUTERS
By Rong Wei Neo
Nov 6, 2026 (Bloomberg) –Iranian oil exports have dwindled to almost nothing under the US naval blockade, but the chance of an imminent deal between the two sides to end the war is low, according to FGE NexantECA.
The Republican Party’s disastrous showing in the midterm elections means Tehran perceives President Donald Trump as politically weakened, FGE Chairman Emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki said in a Bloomberg TV interview with Haslinda Amin. Iran is now making demands the White House cannot accept, he said.
“Not only are we not close to a resolution, we are even worse than we were before the June MOU,” Fesharaki said, referring to an agreement that temporarily reopened the Strait of Hormuz. The likelihood of renewed strikes on Iran is high, as Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have only limited time to act, he said.
President Trump repeatedly threatened fresh attacks on Iran in the run-up to the midterms, helping to push up oil to a six-month high in October. However, he’s been more restrained since the vote, with global benchmark Brent crude falling about 15% this week. The US blockade of Iran has stopped the country’s exports, but the economic pain has so far not resulted in Tehran making major concessions in peace negotiations.
Only about 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil are still reaching the market via Iraq, Fesharaki said. “By the end of November, they will be starving because there will be no money coming in.”
Read More: Gulf States Fear Fiercer Iran Retaliation If US Strikes
The near-halt in shipments is squeezing a key source of revenue for Tehran after more than eight months of war. China was the main destination for sanctioned Iranian crude before the conflict, with the discounted barrels particularly popular among the country’s independent refiners, or teapots.
Iran loaded no crude onto tankers in September or October, according to vessel-tracking estimates compiled by Bloomberg. September marked the first month without loadings since the war began in February.
The blockade has also left at least 54 tankers carrying Iranian oil and other petroleum products idling along the country’s coast, according to American nonprofit group United Against Nuclear Iran. Some smaller vessels are still getting through, with about 11 ships carrying Iranian liquefied petroleum gas successfully passing the blockade, UANI said in an update this week.
© 2026 Bloomberg L.P.
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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised oil-price forecasts for the year-end and 2027 on elevated risks to supplies, joining other banks in hiking their outlooks after months of war in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia is in talks with foreign governments to give state-owned Aramco access to their strategic oil storage, as the kingdom seeks to make its supplies to customers more resilient during disruptions, Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said.
Accelerating crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz aren’t translating into higher production of a dirty shipping fuel, according to a top Vitol Group executive, tightening supplies and sending prices soaring.
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