Finland Sees Continued Demand for Icebreakers Despite Warming Winters, Citing Security Concerns

Finland expects to operate at least as many icebreakers in the coming decades as it does today, despite rising temperatures and declining average ice coverage in the Baltic Sea. This is the conclusion of a new government-commissioned report that also highlights growing security requirements and changes in the commercial shipping fleet.

The Finnish Transport Infrastructure Agency (FTIA) published the proposed 2026–2045 fleet renewal program earlier this week, outlining a phased replacement of the country’s aging icebreakers. The assessment, prepared in cooperation with the Swedish Maritime Administration, concludes that climate change will make ice conditions more variable and difficult to predict. Changes in merchant ship designs are also increasing the need for icebreaker assistance.

Although average ice coverage is expected to decrease, Finland will continue to experience winters with severe ice conditions. The report also points to planned offshore wind farms in the Baltic Sea altering ice dynamics and narrowing the navigable areas available to commercial shipping. Further modeling of the effects is expected in early 2027.

Another factor is the declining ice-going capability of newer commercial vessels. The report finds that merchant ships increasingly have lower engine power relative to their cargo capacity, less suitable bow designs and towing arrangements, and larger windage areas. As a result, even vessels with relatively high ice classifications often struggle to navigate independently in ice compared with older ships.

The trend is partly linked to the optimization of commercial ships for open-water efficiency and lower fuel consumption. The report warns that the gap between a vessel’s theoretical ice classification and its actual operational capability is becoming more pronounced, potentially increasing demand for icebreaker assistance even as average ice conditions become milder. Last winter Russia dispatched a nuclear icebreaker from the Arctic to assist in the Baltic Sea due to severe ice conditions.

Thus the report concludes that a reliable winter navigation system will also require improvements to the ice-going capabilities of commercial vessels. Finland and Sweden are therefore also considering revisions to their shared ice-class rules to better reflect ships’ actual performance in ice.

The proposed renewal program would replace Finland’s icebreakers progressively according to age. The first priority is the 1970s-built Urho and Sisu, followed by Kontio and Otso in the 2030s and the multipurpose icebreakers Fennica and Nordica in the 2040s. The program is separate from the ongoing replacement of the much older Voima, for which the new B+ class icebreaker Aino is being developed.

Beyond commercial shipping requirements, the report highlights the growing importance of icebreaking for national security. Finland relies heavily on maritime transport, with more than 95% of its foreign trade in goods carried by sea. The report says reliable winter navigation is essential not only for industrial supply chains and security of supply but also for military mobility.

It recommends assessing whether future icebreakers should have additional capabilities beyond their traditional role, including open-sea operational capacity, surveillance capabilities and the ability to communicate with government information systems. Such requirements would allow the vessels to support authorities during disruptions to maritime traffic and other emergency situations. This is in line with recent calls for an EU icebreaker fleet.

The report also proposes closer Finnish-Swedish cooperation in future icebreaker procurement. Both countries have two and three vessels, respectively, in the aging Urho/Atle class, built in the 1970s. The agencies recommend exploring a common replacement design and the possibility of joint procurement and construction, potentially reducing costs while ensuring compatible capabilities across the northern Baltic Sea.

No joint order has been announced. The agencies propose further work on the legal and procurement arrangements by the end of 2026.

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