Western Seizures Drive Sanctioned Tankers Back to Russian Registry

At least 120 falsely flagged and sanctioned tankers are expected to reflag to Russia in the coming months, according to new analysis from Windward AI. The shift marks a major restructuring of Moscow’s oil export logistics as Western navies escalate physical interdictions of stateless vessels operating in the shadow fleet.

The move follows nine interdictions of sanctioned, stateless tankers in just over eight weeks—a pace Windward describes as a “structural shift” driven by enforcement pressure that has left hundreds of vessels exposed at sea.

From Fraudulent Flags to the Russian Registry

According to Windward’s analysis, nearly 70 dark-fleet tankers have already begun broadcasting Russia as their new flag since May 2025, including 40 that switched after boarding, seizure, or detention operations by U.S., UK, and French forces began in December. At least three vessels—Akkord, Saga, and Topaz—reflagged to Russia from fraudulent registries last week alone.

The trend is accelerating. Throughout 2025, more than 300 shadow-fleet tankers involved in sanctioned Iranian, Venezuelan, or Russian oil trades cycled through permissive registries—often hopping repeatedly between Gabon, the Cook Islands, Barbados, Comoros, and Gambia, according to Windward.

As pressure mounted, those registries began deregistering sanctioned tonnage, leaving many ships effectively stateless and legally vulnerable to boarding under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

“Ships trading under fraudulent registries lack flag-state protection, making them subject to boarding under international law,” Windward said.

The most recent interdiction came February 9, when U.S. forces boarded the runaway tanker Aquila II in the Indian Ocean—the eighth U.S. interdiction linked to Venezuelan oil trades and the ninth overall since December.

Moscow Tightens Its Grip

Windward data shows roughly 120 Russia-trading tankers over 180 meters in length are still broadcasting flags from 19 fraudulent registries, including Botswana, Guyana, Guinea, and Madagascar. These ships are part of a broader pool of more than 650 tankers sanctioned for evading Russia-related measures.

About half of the reflagged vessels are beneficially owned by Sovcomflot. Before February 2022, roughly one-third of Sovcomflot’s fleet sailed under the Russian flag. That figure has now climbed to 56%, with nearly 30 tankers reflagged back to Russia over the past 10 months.

As a result, there are now just over 100 Russian-flagged tankers above 50,000 dwt—nearly double the total seen a year ago. The shift has tightened Moscow’s control over its export chain and reduced false-flag transits through the Baltic, Mediterranean, and English Channel.

Enforcement Goes Physical

European coastal states have warned of stepped-up action against vessels sailing without nationality or valid documentation, reinforcing the growing risk facing stateless ships.

European enforcement has increasingly mirrored U.S. actions. On January 22, French naval forces boarded and seized the tanker Grinch in the Mediterranean under Article 110 of UNCLOS, citing suspicions the vessel was operating under a false flag.

Fourteen European nations—including Baltic and North Sea coastal states—followed with a rare joint warning to the global maritime industry on January 26, setting out thirteen mandatory compliance measures. Vessels sailing under multiple or unclear flags, the statement warned, “may be treated as a ship without nationality.”

Windward’s analysis concludes that reflagging to Russia—often the only registry willing to accept sanctioned tonnage—restores a degree of legal protection under international law, at least for now. But with at least 24 falsely flagged tankers tracked transiting the Baltic in the past four months, and interdictions accelerating, that protection may be increasingly fragile.

Updated: February 11, 2026 (Originally published February 10, 2026)

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