U.S. Import Slowdown Deepens as Retailers Pull Back Amid Iran Crisis

U.S. container imports are expected to remain weaker than last year through at least early fall despite a temporary rebound in May and June, according to new projections from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, underscoring mounting pressure on global trade flows as economic uncertainty and Middle East tensions weigh on consumer demand.

The latest Global Port Tracker report paints a cautious picture for the second half of 2026, with retailers slowing inventory build-ups even as supply chains continue adjusting to tariff disruptions, inflation concerns, and the lingering fallout from the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

While import volumes are projected to rise year-over-year in May and June, NRF says the increase is largely misleading because it compares against the sharp collapse in imports that followed the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement in April 2025.

“The numbers show a year-over-year increase for the next two months, but that’s only because of the sharp fall-off in imports after ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were announced in April 2025,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “With inflation rising and consumer confidence falling amid global economic uncertainty driven by the conflict in Iran, the overall trend of lower imports is expected to continue after that.”

The report suggests retailers remain hesitant to aggressively restock warehouses despite the approach of the traditional peak shipping season.

“Containerized imports in the first quarter were down year over year, and forward demand is weakening,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. “Stalling re-stocking efforts and rising geopolitical tensions are increasingly clouding the outlook.”

Major U.S. ports tracked by the report handled 2.16 million TEU in March, the latest month with final data available. That marked a modest 0.6% increase from the same month last year and a sharp 13.6% jump from February, when Lunar New Year factory closures in Asia and poor weather disrupted cargo flows.

But the momentum appears short-lived.

April imports are projected at 2.13 million TEU, down 3.6% year over year. May is forecast at 2.17 million TEU, up 11.1%, while June is expected to reach 2.13 million TEU, up 8.2%.

After that, volumes are projected to turn negative again.

July imports are forecast to fall 7.8% year over year to 2.2 million TEU, followed by a 5.5% decline in August and a 1.3% drop in September.

The softer outlook reflects growing concern across the retail and shipping industries that consumer demand may weaken further as inflation pressures build and global supply chains remain vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

The ongoing instability surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has added another layer of uncertainty for cargo owners already grappling with elevated transportation costs, volatile fuel prices, and longer transit planning cycles.

Even with the temporary May-June rebound, total first-half 2026 imports are projected to reach 12.59 million TEU, only 0.5% above the same period last year.

That follows a relatively flat 2025, when imports totaled 25.4 million TEU, down slightly from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

For ocean carriers and port operators hoping for a stronger rebound in the second half, the latest projections suggest the industry may instead be heading into another uneven and highly unpredictable peak season.

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