Tariffs Split Container Shipping: U.S. Imports Sink as Global Trade Grows

The container shipping industry is experiencing an unprecedented divergence in the market, with US-bound trade lanes suffering significant declines while routes to other regions show surprising strength, according to the latest BIMCO Container Shipping Market Overview & Outlook for September 2025.

“On the strength of demand in trade lanes not bound for the US, we have increased our ship demand growth forecast for 2025 to 4.5-5.5% while maintaining it at 2.5-3.5% for 2026. We now expect a balanced supply/demand development in 2026 while expecting average market conditions in 2025 to be worse than in 2024,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.

The stark contrast between US import volumes and global shipping trends has become increasingly pronounced following the implementation of tariff increases announced on “Liberation Day.” With few exceptions, these tariffs are now fully implemented, along with several commodity-specific increases.

North American import volumes have shown negative year-on-year growth since April, with BIMCO forecasting a 2% contraction for 2025 before returning to growth in 2026.

The decline in US container imports could rank among the most significant in the industry’s six-decade history, according to shipping expert John McCown. August data revealed only a slight 0.1% year-over-year increase in inbound container volume at the ten largest U.S. ports, following a temporary reprieve in July when volumes rose 3.2%.

August’s marginal growth can be attributed to an exemption for goods in transit after the August 7 implementation of revised reciprocal tariffs. “The new tariffs did not apply to containers that were loaded on vessels at their last foreign port of call before August 7 provided they entered the U.S. before October 5,” McCown explains.

The situation could worsen with the potential implementation of currently paused reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports in mid-November, which would likely “lead to broader declines related to inbound containers to the U.S. from China.”

Adding further complexity is the upcoming USTR ship fee plan targeting vessels built in China or operated by Chinese carriers, set to take effect in mid-October. McCown describes this as “moving container volume related to trade lanes involving the U.S. into unchartered waters,” with potential global ripple effects as these lanes account for more than a quarter of global container miles.

Despite the challenges facing US-bound routes, cargo volume growth to most other regions has proven resilient. BIMCO expects global volumes to grow 2.5-3.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

Asian exports to Sub-Saharan Africa, South & Central America, and Europe & Mediterranean regions are growing particularly strongly, contributing to ship demand growing faster than cargo volumes in 2025.

The National Retail Federation has revised its projection for 2025, now expecting total inbound volume to decrease by 3.4%. When considering that year-to-date volume through August shows a 3.1% increase, translating to “the remaining four months of 2025 being down 15.7% compared to the same four months in 2024.”

September data is expected to show more pronounced declines, with the Port of Los Angeles director stating they expected inbound volume to drop 10% compared to the same month last year. Container bookings data seems to support this outlook, with bookings from China to the U.S. down 26% in the first week of September compared to the same period last year.

The container shipping market continues to be affected by the Red Sea crisis, with Suez Canal transits remaining 90% lower than before Houthi attacks began. The resulting Cape of Good Hope routings have elevated demand, but BIMCO warns that a return to normal routings would reduce ship demand by approximately 10% below their forecast.

On the supply side, BIMCO has increased its growth estimate to 7.3% for 2025 while lowering it to 3.1% for 2026. Slow recycling activity and a slight increase in sailing speeds have contributed to the revised 2025 estimate.

Looking ahead, Rasmussen predicts: “We expect that market conditions and freight rates could weaken further during the rest of 2025. So far, time charter rates and second-hand ship prices have been remarkably unaffected by the lower freight rates, but we expect that could change starting in the fourth quarter of 2025. As we forecast stable supply/demand growth, we expect that freight rates could stabilise in 2026.”

The divergence between US trade lanes and global shipping patterns represents a fundamental shift in global trade dynamics. As McCown observes, “The U.S. is a less relevant player in world trade today than it was prior to these various tariff initiatives and will become more so as announced plans are implemented.”

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