Shipping Industry Says Hormuz Peace Deal Alone Won’t Bring Ships Back

Executives warn that freedom of navigation requires more than a ceasefire as confidence remains shattered after months of conflict

Shipping executives gathered at the Posidonia maritime exhibition in Greece on Monday delivered a clear message: even if Washington and Tehran finalize a ceasefire agreement, commercial shipping is unlikely to return to normal operations in the Strait of Hormuz without clear rules, security guarantees, and confidence that vessels can transit safely.

The comments came as U.S. and Iranian negotiators continue discussions over a proposed 60-day extension of the current ceasefire framework, a deal that could eventually pave the way for reopening one of the world’s most strategically important waterways.

Yet speakers at the Capital Link conference suggested that from shipping’s perspective, a peace agreement is only the first step.

“What we need is obviously a framework, a rules regulation, whatever tells us exactly how we can go in and get out,” said Pankaj Khanna, President of Heidmar Maritime Holdings. “So even if a peace deal was signed, that needs to be clarified and that we don’t know as yet.”

The comments echo concerns repeatedly raised by shipowners, insurers, and maritime security organizations throughout the three-month crisis. While diplomatic discussions have increasingly focused on ceasefires and political agreements, shipping executives have consistently pointed to unresolved operational questions surrounding transit procedures, military instructions, insurance coverage, and liability risks.

Yiannis Procopiou, CEO of Centrofin Management, said the availability of insurance alone would not be enough to restore confidence.

“While insurance might be available, this does not mean that the strait is really a place where you want to be transiting,” Procopiou said. “At least until we have clear rules of engagement as the shipping industry, as to how we deal with the two nations that are involved here, the U.S. and Iran.”

“That’s, right now, a very high risk proposition,” he added.

The shipping industry’s caution comes despite growing optimism among some political leaders that a broader settlement could emerge in coming weeks.

Evangelos Marinakis, founder and chairman of Capital Maritime & Trading Corp., said the industry could afford to wait longer if it results in a durable agreement.

“From what we have seen so far, we can afford to wait for two weeks more, one month more, if the final agreement was good for all of us,” Marinakis said. “An agreement that would make us feel safe and confident for the future.”

Marinakis said he remained optimistic that a solution could be found within weeks.

The crisis has left hundreds of vessels stranded and thousands of seafarers trapped in the region. Maritime organizations have repeatedly stressed that any reopening plan must address not only commercial operations but also humanitarian concerns involving crews that have spent months unable to leave the Gulf.

IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said a confirmed ceasefire covering the Strait of Hormuz would allow the organization’s evacuation framework to move forward immediately.

“If that includes, of course, the Strait of Hormuz, and I can get guarantees from the countries that it is safe to start using the waterway, that’s where the evacuation framework immediately will come and kick in,” Dominguez said.

“The first objective is always to seafarers.”

Khanna noted that one of Heidmar’s vessels has remained trapped inside the Gulf throughout the crisis.

“The seafarers on board are missing out, not only on seeing their families but also on births, on deaths, on marriages,” he said.

Greek Shipping Minister Vasilis Kikilias said the unpredictability of the conflict continues to weigh heavily on global trade.

“We cannot accept that there will be no free passage for ships all over the globe,” Kikilias said. “I wish that they would leave the shipping industry, the seafarers, and global trade out of the equation, but it seems like this is impossible.”

George Procopiou, founder of Dynacom Tankers Management and Dynagas, emphasized that freedom of navigation remains a fundamental principle.

“Freedom of navigation is essential and nobody can impose tolls or any other burden,” he said.

The comments reinforce a growing consensus across the maritime sector that reopening Hormuz will require more than diplomatic announcements. Industry groups including BIMCO, the International Chamber of Shipping, insurers, and shipowners have repeatedly warned that vessel traffic is unlikely to recover until operators have confidence that security guarantees, insurance arrangements, military coordination procedures, and navigation rules are clearly defined.

Another major unanswered question is the status of naval mines. Shipping industry officials have repeatedly warned that a ceasefire alone would not eliminate the risk posed by mines potentially laid during the conflict.

BIMCO has previously cautioned that restoring confidence in the Strait of Hormuz could require weeks of dedicated mine-clearance operations, designated transit corridors, and independent verification that key shipping lanes are safe before shipowners are willing to resume normal operations.

For shipowners, the question is no longer whether a ceasefire can be reached. It is whether any agreement can restore the confidence necessary to persuade commercial vessels to return to one of the world’s most important — and recently most dangerous — shipping lanes.

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