Russian Crude Exports Boom Blunted by Kremlin’s Diesel Sales Ban

(Bloomberg) —

Russia shipped the most crude in a month-and-a-half, while a jump in prices propelled the value of those cargoes close to the highest since the start of the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But the benefits to the Kremlin are being undermined by its ban on overseas diesel sales.

In the four weeks through Sept. 27, overseas crude flows rose to 3.71 million barrels a day, tanker-movements data compiled by Bloomberg showed. That was the most since early August.

At the same time, four-week average crude prices for Russia’s key Urals and ESPO grades hit the highest in more than three months, amid ongoing disruption to Saudi Arabia’s crude shipments while it carried out repairs to a key oil pipeline that was attacked earlier in the month.

Russia is reaping the rewards of the tensions in the Middle East, as its higher shipments combine with rising crude prices to boost Moscow’s Ukraine war chest. Inflows in the latest four-week period were just short of the record set in early May.

Still, the funds from crude sales are only part of the story and are likely being partially offset by a slump in refined products shipments. While Russia boosted its 2026 crude export forecast by about 150,000 barrels a day, it made a bigger cut of about 500,000 barrels a day to its forecast of refined product shipments.

Ukrainian drone strikes continue to put Russian refineries out of action. That’s forcing Moscow to divert crude that can’t be processed domestically into the export stream, boosting shipments. However, a shortage of key fuels has led the Kremlin to halt overseas sales of most diesel, which averaged about 1 million barrels a day before Kyiv’s intensified attacks, a ban that’s expected to be extended through October.

Crude Shipments

In the week to Sept. 27, some 37 tankers loaded 27.9 million barrels of Russian crude, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume compared with a 24.99 million barrels on 32 ships the previous week.

Loading operations recovered at Novorossiysk, but some tankers are spending much longer than normal at the port’s berths, satellite images seen by Bloomberg show.

Weekly shipments can be volatile, affected by weather, maintenance work, sanctions, military activity and the timing of departures.

There was one shipment of Kazakhstan’s Kebco grade from Novorossiysk during the week. Moscow has diverted all shipments of Kazakh crude this month through the Black Sea port, freeing up more capacity for its own barrels at Ust-Luga on the Baltic, which is seen as safer.

The amount of Russian crude on the water rose again last week, reflecting the rebound in shipments. Ships hauling Arctic crude to China are typically transferring their cargoes onto other vessels. These transfers usually take place east of Singapore from ships taking the Red Sea route and off Nakhodka or Zarubino for those taking the Northern Sea Route. Most Sokol cargoes are also transferred, usually in Kozmino Bay. These transfers can introduce delays, boosting the amount of oil at sea.

Export Value

On a four-week average basis, the gross value of Moscow’s exports rose to $2.39 billion a week in the 28 days to Sept. 27, up by $290 million a week from the figure for the period to Sept. 20 and the highest since the period to May 24. The increase was driven by a combination of higher prices for Russia’s key crudes and a modest increase in flows.

On a weekly basis, the value of exports jumped by about $180 million, with higher shipments more than offsetting a drop in Urals prices, which fell in line with global benchmarks. At $2.75 billion, the weekly value was the highest since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Flows by Destination 

China and India remain the biggest buyers of Russian crude by a considerable margin. But it’s not always possible to assign a final destination to individual cargoes until well into their voyage, leaving many of the more recent shipments on tankers showing interim destinations, such as Suez or Port Sudan, marked as “Unknown Asia.”

Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, rose to 3.61 million barrels a day in the 28 days to Sept. 27, up from 3.4 million in the period to Sept. 20.

Shipments to Moscow’s remaining customers in the Mediterranean region have tumbled to the lowest level since the invasion of Ukraine, falling to about 100,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Sept. 27.

Flows to Turkey, Russia’s biggest buyer west of Suez, fell to about 50,000 barrels a day, down from 80,000 barrels a day for the period to Sept. 20.

Separately, shipments to Egypt, Russia’s newest east Mediterranean customer, were steady at about 50,000 barrels a day in the four-week period to Sept. 27. That’s the third week they’ve been at that level.

Flows to Syria have fallen to zero since August after the Mediterranean nation agreed to “drastically” reduce Russian oil imports in negotiations with the US on lifting remaining sanctions.

NOTES

This story forms part of a weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be on Tuesday, Oct. 6.

All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.

Bloomberg classifies ship-to-ship transfers as clandestine if automated position signals appear to be switched off or falsified — a tactic known as spoofing — to hide the two vessels involved coming together to make the cargo switch.

Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port-agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd. and satellite imagery covering Russian ports.

If you are reading this story on the Bloomberg terminal, click for a link to a PDF file of four-week average flows from Russia to key destinations.

To contact the author of this story:
Julian Lee in London at [email protected]

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