Dispatch 48 – Tariff Time

Dispatch 48 – Tariff Time

Mike Schuler
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February 1, 2025
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Dispatch No. 48


Hello Club Members! Here is your weekly Dispatch with all the maritime news you need to know to end your week.

Ship Photo of The Week

The Swedish Coast Guard vessel KBV 033, and the cargo ship Vezhen, which is under seizure while it is being investigated by Swedish authorities over damage to a critical telecoms cable in the Baltic Sea, are anchored outside Karlskrona, Sweden, January 27, 2025. TT News Agency/Johan Nilsson via REUTERS

Top Stories

Trump Hits Canada, Mexico, and China with Promised Tariffs

President Donald Trump has followed through on his tariffs threat, imposing 25% levies on Canadian and Mexican imports and 10% on Chinese goods starting today. The move, aimed at reshaping trade and pressuring foreign governments over border security and drug trafficking, is just the beginning—Trump has hinted at more tariffs coming February 18, targeting oil, gas, steel, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.

“There’s nothing they can do to stop it,” Trump declared Friday, dismissing concerns from trading partners and economists who warn the tariffs will raise prices for U.S. consumers and disrupt global supply chains.

With Trump ordering further trade reviews due April 1, analysts expect an expansion of tariffs, possibly hitting the European Union next. The big question now: Will tariffs fuel a manufacturing boom—or an economic storm?

Panama Canal Treaty Under Pressure

The 1977 Panama Canal Neutrality Treaty has become the focal point of a new geopolitical firestorm, as U.S. lawmakers—spurred by President Trump’s escalating rhetoric about “taking back” the Panama Canal—express concerns over China’s growing influence on the vital waterway.

At a Senate hearing this week, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and colleagues warned that Chinese-backed projects—including a new $1.3 billion bridge and Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison’s longstanding control of two ports on either end of the waterway—pose an “acute” national security risk. They argue these interests could enable China to block canal access during a geopolitical crisis, such as a conflict over Taiwan.

President Trump has falsely claimed that China operates the canal—an assertion Panama has outright rejected. Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino maintains that the canal remains fully under Panamanian control and has ruled out any negotiations as Secretary Secretary of State Marco Rubio plans to visit the country over the weekend.

The treaty’s interpretation will likely shape future U.S. actions. The key question is whether Panama’s dealings with Chinese firms violate the treaty’s special “regime of neutrality”—a provision allowing the U.S. to defend the canal’s neutrality if it’s threatened. Some legal experts suggest that China’s growing economic foothold through state-linked companies securing key infrastructure contracts could warrant U.S. intervention. Others reject this view, pointing out that CK Hutchison isn’t a state-owned entity and that Panama collaborates with U.S., Singaporean, and Taiwanese firms.Beyond national security concerns, U.S. officials are questioning the canal’s rising tolls, which they claim disproportionately affect American businesses.

Trump capped the week with his most aggressive threat yet, telling reporters from the Oval Office: “We’re gonna take it back… they’ve totally violated the agreement.”

As U.S.-China tensions heat up, the Panama Canal will remain a flashpoint in the global power struggle.

Gemini Cooperation Sets Sail Amid Market Headwinds

The Gemini Cooperation, a new Maersk-Hapag-Lloyd alliance, officially launches today, aiming to shake up the container shipping industry with an ambitious 90% on-time performance target. Operating 57 services across 340 vessels, the partnership is designed to bring efficiency and flexibility to East-West trade routes.

But despite the fanfare, the launch coincides with a rough patch for the industry as freight rates continue their downward spiral due to seasonal volatility and easing tensions in the Red Sea.

With Maersk and MSC ending their decade-long 2M Alliance and Hapag-Lloyd’s exit from THE Alliance, the industry is in the midst of a major reshuffle. Rising from the ashes of THE Alliance, the newly formed Premier Alliance—featuring Ocean Network Express (ONE), HMM, and Yang Ming—now awaits U.S. regulatory approval, while Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), the world’s largest shipping line, has chosen to go it alone.

Going forward, the existing Ocean Alliance—comprising CMA CGM, Evergreen, Cosco, and OOCL—will lead the market in terms of capacity, with Gemini projected to run the lowest number of weekly sailings among major alliances in 2025.

Meanwhile, container spot rates are sliding, thanks to a seasonal post-Lunar New Year lull and a ceasefire in the Middle East shifting market sentiment. Rates on key Far East-to-Europe routes have dropped by up to 22% since the start of the year (albeit to levels still significantly above pre-pandemic years), while U.S.-bound trade lanes are also feeling the pinch. In an attempt to stop the bleeding, carriers are slashing capacity, with blanked sailings from Asia to Europe skyrocketing in February.

As alliances shift and economic pressures mount, the next few months will test whether strategic overhauls like Gemini can steady the ship—or if rougher seas lie ahead.

Seal of Deception: Smugglers Busted at LA-LB Ports

Federal authorities have cracked open a massive smuggling ring at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, arresting eight suspects accused of sneaking counterfeit goods from China past U.S. customs. The scheme, which ran from August 2023 to June 2024, allegedly involved logistics executives, warehouse owners, and truckers who swapped security seals on flagged containers, replacing contraband with filler cargo.

Investigators seized $130 million in fake luxury goods—including handbags, watches, and perfume—with the total smuggled haul estimated at $200 million. A warehouse raid last June alone uncovered $20 million in knockoffs.

Officials say this “seal-swapping” racket is part of a broader trend, with law enforcement confiscating $1.3 billion in counterfeit goods linked to similar schemes. The eight defendants face serious prison time, while one remains on the run. Authorities stress that securing the nation’s busiest ports is critical to protecting businesses and consumers.

Cable Trouble: Ships Eyed in New Baltic Sabotage Probe

Norwegian authorities have seized the Silver Dania, a Norwegian-owned cargo ship with an all-Russian crew, on suspicion of damaging a critical telecoms cable in the Baltic Sea. The vessel was detained at the request of Latvian authorities, making it the second ship implicated in the case.

Sweden and Latvia are investigating last Sunday’s severing of an undersea fiber optic link between the two countries. Another vessel, the Maltese-flagged Vezhen, was boarded earlier in the week, with Swedish prosecutors saying they believe it caused the damage—possibly with its anchor.

The Silver Dania’s owners deny involvement, but with recent attacks on Baltic infrastructure raising security concerns, NATO is ramping up maritime patrols under Operation Baltic Sentry. Norwegian police say the two ship seizures are linked, though details remain scarce. One thing’s clear: undersea infrastructure in the Baltic is becoming a geopolitical fault line.

Abandoned at Sea: Shipowners Ditch Record Number of Seafarers

Seafarer abandonment surged to record levels in 2024, with 3,133 crew members left stranded by shipowners—an 87% jump from the previous year, according to new data from the International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF). A staggering 312 vessels were abandoned, marking a 136% increase, as some ships cycled through multiple unpaid crews.

For seafarers, abandonment means months—sometimes years—without pay, food, or a way home. The ITF highlighted the plight of one sailor, identified as “Sanjay,” who has been stuck on a tug for 29 months, with 15 of those unpaid. “All I’ve had are false promises,” he said.

Flags of convenience play a major role, with Panama, Palau, and Tanzania among the worst offenders. The UAE tops the list for port-state abandonments, reflecting a lack of enforcement in its booming maritime sector. The ITF warns that unless regulators step up, the exploitation of the world’s maritime workforce will only get worse.

40 Icebreakers or Just Hot Air?

Fresh off his second inauguration, President Trump made waves this week by announcing the U.S. will order 40 big icebreakers—a bold claim that left industry experts scratching their heads. While America’s icebreaking fleet desperately needs a refresh, securing funding and shipyard capacity for such a massive undertaking is another story.

With Trump’s pipe dream of owning Greenland and growing Russia-China collaboration in the Arctic, Trump’s off-the-cuff icebreaker remarks could be strategic—or just another headline-grabbing gaffe. Will he follow through, or will this promise melt away like spring ice?


Weekend Reading

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