Hapag-Lloyd Sees Slow Return to Gulf Shipping After U.S.-Iran Ceasefire, Warns of Rising Disruption Costs

Hapag-Lloyd struck a cautious tone on Wednesday over a possible resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz following a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, warning that a full return to normal operations could take up to two months.

Chief Executive Rolf Habben Jansen said the situation in the Middle East remained “very fluid,” despite the tentative agreement, and continued to disrupt global shipping and supply chains.

“Even if a ceasefire has now been agreed, the conflict is still severely disrupting shipping, but also supply chains,” he said on a customer call, adding that the company would need further security assurances before restoring regular services.

Hapag-Lloyd said it may begin reopening bookings to destinations in the upper Gulf region in the coming days, initially on a limited basis and for selected markets, provided the ceasefire holds.

The German carrier echoed similar caution from Danish rival Maersk, highlighting industry-wide concerns over the safety of transit through one of the world’s most critical oil and trade chokepoints.

Even after conditions stabilize, Hapag-Lloyd expects it will take six to eight weeks to normalize its network, as vessels, cargo flows and schedules gradually return to balance following weeks of disruption.

The crisis has come at a growing financial cost. Hapag-Lloyd now estimates the impact at $50 million to $60 million per week, up from a prior estimate of $40 million to $50 million, citing rerouting, delays and additional security measures. The company said it would need to pass on part of these costs to customers.

Around 1,000 vessels remain stranded across the region, including six Hapag-Lloyd ships with a combined capacity of about 25,000 containers.

Markets showed mixed reactions to the ceasefire news. Hapag-Lloyd shares rose about 5.5% in morning trade, recovering recent losses, while Maersk shares slipped.

Industry executives caution that even with a truce in place, restoring confidence and ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be key to any sustained recovery in global shipping flows.

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