Gulf Shipping on Edge as Israel Sets Nuclear Deal Deadline

The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) has issued an advisory about potential maritime security impacts in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Northern Arabian Sea after Israeli authorities reportedly issued an ultimatum requiring a nuclear agreement between Iran and the United States by Sunday, with warnings of military action if negotiations fail.

The United States and Iran are set to hold sixth round of nuclear talks on Sunday.

While the JMIC advisory notes there are currently no direct threats to commercial shipping, the proximity of potential conflict zones to critical maritime chokepoints has raised concerns about rapid escalation. The situation is further complicated by threats from non-state actors, including the Houthis, who have indicated their intention to respond if U.S. involvement in an attack on Iran is suspected.

The escalation comes as the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations, marking the first such declaration in almost two decades.

Markets have already reacted to the tensions, with global oil prices surging more than 4% to their highest levels since early April. Paul McNamara, director of emerging market debt at GAM, warns that “there is a lot of scope for things to get a whole lot worse if we do see a military strike and a sustained attack.”

Martin Kelly, Head of Advisory at EOS Risk Group, said Iran’s nuclear facilities are definitely on the table for Israeli targeting, along with other potential energy infrastructure in Bushehr and oil loading terminals at Kharg Island that would be deemed less escalatory, prompting retaliatory attacks from Iran.

“Commerical shipping is an obvious target set in a tit-for-tat move to impact global oil markets. Iran could seize, mine or missile attack affiliated or non-affiliated shipping in the AG, SoH or GoO, missile ranges extend beyond that,” Kelly wrote on X.

“Houthis could reimplement the Red Sea blockade whilst increasing UAV/BM attacks against Israel,” he added.

JMIC advises vessels in the region to maintain close contact with maritime security centers and keep communication equipment continuously manned. The organization will continue issuing daily updates until the outcome of Sunday’s talks.

Subscribe for Daily Maritime Insights

Sign up for gCaptain’s newsletter and never miss an update

— trusted by our 109,193 members