Freight Rates Stall After Lunar New Year as Carriers Eye Blank Sailings

By Gavin van Marle (The Loadstar) – Container freight spot rates on the major trades saw limited movement this week as supply chains in China slowly began to restart following the new year holiday.

While some offices and factories reopened this week, the flow of trucks into and out of China’s ports takes a while to resume normal levels as truck drivers return to work, and thus cargo flows remain subdued.

And as a result, spot freight rates on the main east-west trades mimicked last week in largely staying flat.

Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) saw a 1% week-on-week decline in its Shanghai-Rotterdam leg, to end at $2094 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-Genoa leg was down 2% against the previous week, to finish at $2,826 per 40ft.

As greater amounts of export cargo return to China’s ports over the coming week, the question is whether it will be enough to raise spot rates to Europe after seven consecutive weeks of spot rate declines.

“Volumes typically rebound in March as factories across Asia reopen, but rates are expected to remain under pressure due to rising capacity. Hence, we expect spot rates on this trade to soften in the coming weeks,” Drewry noted.

However, with five Asia-Mediterranean and six Asia-North Europe sailings due to be blanked next week, according to Linerlytica data, carriers will be hoping this capacity management will be enough to prop up prices.

Today’s Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI), after taking a one-week break, saw its Shanghai-North Europe base port leg climb 4%, to $1,420 per teu, while its Shanghai-Mediterranean base port route gained 6%, to $2,305 per teu.

The SCFI aggregates quoted freight rates for the forthcoming week and often acts as a “forward curve” for the WCI.

If that holds true for next week, today’s SCFI also promised strengthening rates on transpacific routes, with the Shanghai-US west coast base port leg gaining 4%, to $1,857 per 40ft, and the Shanghai-US east coast base port leg up 7%, to $2,691 per 40ft.

This week’s WCI for transpacific rates was broadly in line: Shanghai-Los Angeles lost 1%, to end at $2,191 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-New York leg was flat, at $2,771 per 40ft.

A further unknown is how well the transpacific general rate increases, of between $2,000 and $3,000 per 40ft, depending on carrier, will stick after their introduction on 1 March.

In any case, while the continuing uncertainty over what tariffs are likely to be applied to goods on transpacific routes will clearly impact demand over the next month or so, analysts at Maritime Strategies International (MSI) said rates on both trades could fall another 25% to 30%, given the capacity overhang.

“When viewed in aggregate, both Asia-North Europe and Asia-US west coast spot freight rates have fallen in the region of 15% over the past month. Most of this fall can be ascribed to seasonal trends around the lunar new year, although further rates declines are expected to be more heavily driven by overcapacity.

“Overall, we anticipate that rates will soften further in 2026 and stabilise in the region of $1,000 per teu on the Asia-North Europe trade, and $1,500 per 40ft to the US west coast.

“US-bound rates could see some potential upside if the new tariff situation (or announcements of new investigations) leads to renewed frontloading,” MSI noted this week.

Editorial Standards · Corrections · About gCaptain

Subscribe for Daily Maritime Insights

Sign up for gCaptain’s newsletter and never miss an update

— trusted by our 107,062 members