Dry Bulk Shipping Rates Surge on Tight Capesize Vessel Supply

By Katharine Gemmell and Weilun Soon (Bloomberg) — A key measure of bulk-shipping rates has touched a two-year high and risks climbing further, according to analysts, as bad weather crimps the availability of Capesize vessels just as exporters ramp up delivery.

The Baltic Dry Index rose 5.5% to 3,331 points on Wednesday in London, touching the highest since December 2023, driven largely by a rise in the constituent Capesize rate which surged over 8%. Bad weather has hit the Pacific at a time of strong demand in both that ocean and the Atlantic. 

“We see the current surge as something of a perfect storm, with vessel supply tightening and demand firing in both basins at the same time,” broker Thurlestone Shipping wrote in a note.

The broader BDI gauge tracks freight rates for Capesize — giant vessels that are seen as the workhorses of the market — as well as Panamaxes and Supramaxes, all ships transporting raw materials such as iron ore, coal and grain. The index has rallied 77% so far this year as the war in the Middle East disrupted shipping.

Shares in dry-bulk carriers have also surged this year, outpacing even the stock of tanker owners as Middle East traffic disruptions upend the wider maritime sector.

Shipping and port operations along the Pacific Ocean have been battered by a series of typhoons. At the same time, Australian exporters are ramping up shipments as maintenance winds down, while upgrades to transshipment operations are boosting ore flows from Guinea, home to the giant Simandou iron ore deposit. 

The result is that exporters have been left scrambling to secure vessels for longer haul voyages.

“The market enters the latter part of the third quarter with a relatively high freight-rate floor just as Pacific typhoon activity typically becomes more disruptive to port operations,” said Wilson Wirawan, head of dry bulk shipping research at BRS Shipbrokers, based in Singapore. 

“Resulting delays and vessel inefficiencies, if any, could further tighten effective tonnage availability, adding another layer of support to an already firm Capesize market.”

Iron ore futures rose 1.5% to $98.75 a ton in Singapore as of 11:22 a.m. local time.

© 2026 Bloomberg L.P.

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