Black Sea Tensions Lead Grain Buyers to Tap Baltic States

By Pyotr Kozlov (Bloomberg) — Baltic grain exporters are seeing a boost in demand as blocked supplies from the Black Sea region are spurring buyers to seek alternative sources.

About 1 million tons of wheat have been booked for loading at ports in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia so far in August, according to data from market observer CM Navigator. That’s up about 50% from a year earlier and follows a threefold jump in bookings in July. 

There’s buying interest from Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Sudan — all traditional buyers of Russian wheat, according to the data. There’s also been a surge in demand from typical customers for Baltic grain such as Nigeria and South Africa, according to Vilnius-based trading firm Scandagra.

The pickup in demand from the Baltic states, one of the European Union’s key exporting regions, underscores the rising interest for alternatives to Black Sea grain as Russia and Ukraine step up attacks on each other’s shipping and port infrastructure. That’s choked off shipments from the region and heightened concerns about global supplies, sending wheat prices to a three-year high this week.

“We are seeing a major shift in demand,” Karolis Tarasevicius, Scandagra’s head of agri-commodities trading in Lithuania and Latvia, said by phone. “If the situation continues for another week or two without an agreement between Russia and Ukraine, we expect more shipments to less traditional destinations such as Turkey, Sudan, Libya and Egypt.” 

Russia is now preparing to intensify attacks on Ukraine, including infrastructure targets, after concluding that peace negotiations have reached a dead end, according to people close to the Kremlin. Frameworks for dialogue have effectively collapsed, leaving the two warring sides back at square one, the people said.

Still, Baltic wheat remains more expensive than Russian grain, keeping some buyers from signing contracts, Gintaras Pauza, the head broker at Copenhagen Merchants’ Lithuania office in Kaunas, said by phone. 

While the EU’s grain harvests have seen widespread damage from a series of heat waves this summer, limiting the bloc’s export potential, Baltic crops have benefited from wetter weather. The region will have about 6 million tons of wheat available for export this season, according to CM Navigator. 

“At the end of the day, there is a huge drop of wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine in August, which need to be replaced,” Donatas Jankauskas, an analyst at CM Navigator, said by phone. 

© 2026 Bloomberg L.P.

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