Bulker Newbuilding Orders Plunge to Five-Year Low Amid Market Uncertainty

The dry bulk shipping sector has seen a dramatic pullback in new vessel orders, with bulker newbuilding contracting capacity falling 54% year-over-year to 25 million deadweight tonnes between January and November 2025, according to data from BIMCO.

The decline represents the lowest level of contracting activity since 2020, with only 281 ships ordered so far this year—a 61% drop from 2024 and the fewest since 2016. The slowdown has resulted in a dry bulk orderbook that is now 4% smaller than a year ago, accounting for 11% of the total dry bulk fleet.

“Between January and November 2025, the capacity of bulker newbuilding contracting has fallen 54% y/y to 25m DWT, reaching its lowest level since 2020. Consequently, the dry bulk orderbook is now 4% smaller than a year ago, accounting for 11% of the dry bulk fleet. Contracting has likely eased due to a cloudy market outlook,” said Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.

The contraction has not been uniform across all vessel segments. While orders have declined across the board, the capesize segment—which comprises the largest ships in the dry bulk fleet—has seen comparatively higher contracting activity. This reflects stronger freight rate expectations for capesizes over the next two years, driven by anticipated increases in sailing distances that could boost tonne-mile demand despite softer cargo growth. The segment also faces limited supply growth due to constrained deliveries, though lead times remain extended, with 77% of new capesize orders scheduled for delivery after 2027.

In contrast, the supramax and panamax segments have experienced steeper declines, with contracting falling 76% and 55% year-over-year respectively. Both segments face larger existing orderbooks and expected increases in ship deliveries in 2026 and 2027, combined with weak demand outlooks.

“Contracting in the supramax and panamax segments has declined significantly, falling 76% y/y and 55% y/y respectively. Both segments have comparatively large orderbooks and therefore an expected increase in ship deliveries in 2026 and 2027. In addition, their demand outlook appears weak, while a potential return of ships to the Red Sea poses a further downside risk to demand for these segments. These factors could lead to weaker freight rates over the next two years, which might be discouraging newbuilding contracting,” Gouveia explained.

The potential resumption of Red Sea transits poses an additional downside risk to demand for these smaller vessel classes.

Chinese shipyards have maintained their dominance in the bulk sector, capturing 81% of new orders by capacity—up nine percentage points from 2024, largely at the expense of Japanese yards. This continued preference for Chinese yards has persisted despite the previously announced, but now suspended, USTR port fees on Chinese-built ships. The limited impact of these measures may be attributed to the fact that shipments to or from the United States account for only 8% of global cargoes, combined with several fee exemptions.

Economic factors present a mixed picture for potential buyers. Newbuilding prices have dropped 3% since the start of 2025, while five-year-old second-hand ship prices have increased 4%, with used vessels now selling for an average of 93% of newbuild prices.This price dynamic reflects strengthening market conditions and freight rates during the second half of the year.However, extended lead times mean vessels ordered today could be delivered under substantially different market conditions.

Environmental considerations continue to shape ordering patterns, though with evolving priorities. While the share of contracted capacity designed to use alternative fuels has decreased in 2025, the proportion designed to allow for future retrofitting has increased, potentially reflecting ongoing uncertainty about alternative fuel availability.

“In 2025, the share of contracted capacity designed to use alternative fuels has decreased, but the share designed to allow for future retrofitting has increased. This could reflect lingering uncertainty over the availability of alternative fuels. Overall, 12% of the current orderbook could use alternative fuels upon delivery, of which 48% could use methanol, 37% LNG and the rest could use ammonia,” Gouveia said.

Currently, 12% of the orderbook is capable of using alternative fuels upon delivery, with methanol accounting for 48% of these vessels, LNG 37%, and ammonia comprising the remainder.

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