WTO: Global Goods Trade Recovery Extends Into Third Quarter

(Bloomberg) —

Global merchandise trade is recovering from last year’s slump, the World Trade Organization said, as one of its barometers for activity rose further above the longer-term average pace.

The WTO’s goods barometer increased to 103 compared with a reading of 100.6 in March, the Geneva-based organization said Wednesday. The baseline of 100 indicates growth over the next quarter that’s in line with medium-term trends.

“This suggests that merchandise trade has been picking up in the third quarter of 2024.” the report said. “However, the outlook remains uncertain due to shifting monetary policy in advanced economies and weakening export orders.”

All of the barometer’s components such as autos, shipping containers and air freight are showing at or above-trend levels, “with the notable exception of the electronic components index, which is below trend and falling,” the WTO said.

In April the WTO forecast total goods trade will increase 2.6% in 2024, a downgrade from an earlier estimate but a turnaround from a 1.2% decline last year.

© 2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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