US Ports Sector Outlook Stable for 2025 Despite Economic Headwinds, Moody’s Reports

The US ports sector is poised for a year of modest growth in 2025, according to a recent Moody’s Ratings report. Despite facing economic challenges, the industry’s outlook remains stable, with cargo volumes expected to increase slightly amid decelerating GDP growth and softer consumer spending.

According to the report, total container cargo volume at rated ports is projected to grow by approximately 2% in 2025. This growth, while positive, marks a significant deceleration from the robust performance seen in 2024. “Total cargo volume increased by a monthly average of 11% in the January-August period this year versus 2023, and we expect at least 9% growth for all of 2024,” Moody’s stated.

However, the sector faces several potential risks that could impact its performance. The most significant threats include the possibility of expanded tariffs by the incoming administration and the risk of a prolonged labor strike. The proposed tariffs, ranging from 10-20% on trading partners or up to 60% on goods from China, could lead to a substantial slowdown in trade.

Labor issues also loom large over the industry. Despite a tentative agreement in October that ended a three-day strike at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports, the possibility of another strike starting January 15 remains a concern. “Operator ports, which generate revenue based on cargo volumes, are most at risk,” the report warns.

Cybersecurity has emerged as a growing concern for the sector. Following several breaches, including one at the Port of Seattle, Moody’s has elevated the port sector’s global cyber risk profile from moderate to high risk. Additionally, potential disruptions to Panama Canal traffic due to drought conditions could affect East Coast ports, although water levels have recently improved.

On a brighter note, the cruise industry continues to be a significant boon for certain ports. Bookings for 2025 and 2026 are strong, with prices higher than current levels. “Younger consumers and the relative affordability of cruises will continue to boost demand,” noted the report.

While the overall outlook is stable, Moody’s cautions that it could change to negative if cargo volumes are expected to decrease due to weaker economic conditions. Conversely, a positive outlook would be considered if volume growth were to exceed 3%.

As the US ports sector navigates these complex dynamics, stakeholders will be closely monitoring economic indicators, labor negotiations, and global trade policies. The industry’s resilience and adaptability will be key factors in maintaining stability and capitalizing on growth opportunities in the coming year.

Unlock Exclusive Insights Today!

Join the gCaptain Club for curated content, insider opinions, and vibrant community discussions.

Sign Up