U.S. Strikes in Iran Raise Alarms Over Security of American-Affiliated Ships in Middle East

Maritime security firms have issued urgent advisories following U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, warning of heightened risks to commercial shipping in the Middle East’s critical waterways. The strikes, conducted on June 22, targeted three facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan—using penetrating “bunker-buster” bombs and cruise missiles in a coordinated attack.

Maritime security firm Ambrey reports that Iran is “almost certain to respond militarily to the US strikes,” with likely targets including US-affiliated shipping. The situation has already disrupted commercial operations, with five US-affiliated vessels departing the Arabian/Persian Gulf since the strikes, while several others have gathered in UAE territorial waters.

The Iranian Parliament has authorized the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, though experts suggest any such action would likely target specific nations rather than implement a complete shutdown. Final decision ultimately rests with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

“Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz is a desperate bargaining chip rather than a genuine strategic plan. Tehran knows that choking this vital shipping route will cripple its own economy and alienate even its most sympathetic partners like China, Oman and Qatar,” notes maritime research firm Drewry.

Historical precedent suggests full closure remains unlikely. During the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war—nicknamed the “Tanker War”—the strait came close to closure but remained navigable despite missiles targeting tankers. Even during heightened tensions in 2011-12 and 2018-19, Iran’s closure threats never materialized.

According to Ambrey’s analysis, a targeted closure focusing on US and Israeli shipping is more probable, as a complete blockade would harm Iran’s economy and its relationships with neighboring countries.

“If there is a ‘closure’ of the Strait of Hormuz, this is more likely to be targeted, focused on US and Israeli shipping,” Ambrey said.

Nevertheless, shipping markets have already reacted strongly to the escalating situation. Between June 13-20, 2025, freight rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) on Arabian Gulf-East routes surged nearly 70%, while Large Range tanker rates to the Far East increased 45%, according to Drewry.

“Brent crude could surge within minutes of Iran’s announcement of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz… we expect oil prices to surpass $100 while LNG spot prices worldwide could flirt with $25-30/MMBtu,” said Drewry.

Adding to the complexity, the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have re-entered the fray. On June 21, their military spokesperson threatened U.S. shipping in the Red Sea, with reports indicating they have received “directives” to counter American forces. The threat comes after a surprising ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Houthis in May after weeks of relentless U.S. bombings in Yemen.

The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) has assessed the threat to US-associated commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden as “HIGH”.

The impact on maritime traffic has been significant. JMIC reports increased electronic interference affecting GNSS systems throughout the region, particularly near the Port of Bandar Abbas and in the Central Arabian Gulf. This has led some vessels to restrict their transit through the Strait of Hormuz to daylight hours, while others have congregated near Dubai and in the southern Gulf of Oman awaiting further instructions.

Despite these challenges, maritime traffic continues to flow through the strategic waterway. June 2025 has averaged 114 vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz daily. However, the situation remains fluid, with JMIC maintaining an “ELEVATED” threat level for the maritime domain.

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Figures as of June 23:

For shipping companies, both Ambrey and JMIC have issued specific guidance. Vessels with US affiliations are strongly advised to avoid the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman, Arabian/Persian Gulf, Gulf of Aden, and southern Red Sea where possible. Those that must operate in these regions are urged to conduct thorough affiliation checks and implement enhanced security measures.

While Iran has responded with retaliatory strikes against Israel, the full scope of their response remains uncertain. The international maritime community continues to monitor the situation closely, with particular attention to any signals that might indicate escalation in these strategically vital waterways.

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