With U.S. port data from August trickling in, we’re getting greater insight into the West to East cargo shift that continues to play out in the United States.
A new report from industry veteran John McCown, founder of Blue Alpha Capital, does an excellent job at dissecting the August data from the top ten U.S. ports. The report shows that total inbound cargo volumes to the United States were flat in August (0.0%) compared to the same month last year. This compares to a 0.2% yoy decline in July and well below the 5.0% gain in June.
Considering forecasts had been calling for volumes to decline starting in August, flat performance is pretty good.
August’s overall inbound volume, at more than 2.1 million TEUs, was actually the fifth highest monthly volume ever and 4.8% above the average monthly volume since the summer of 2020 when the pandemic-fueled imports surge began.
Perhaps the most striking takeaway from August was the difference in performance between East and Gulf Coast ports and those on the West Coast.
As we have reported recently, the East/Gulf Coast ports of New York/New Jersey, Savannah and Houston all recorded strong year-over-year gains in August, while Los Angeles and Long Beach on the West Coast reported falling volumes (Long Beach saw a slight increase in overall volumes due to empty exports, but imports were down yoy).
To further illustrate this shift, the Port of New York and New Jersey, which typically ranks as the third busiest U.S. port behind Los Angeles and Long Beach, reported the highest total throughput in the country in August.
McCown’s report shows inbound cargo volumes at East/Gulf Coast ports were up 17% compared to the average from the previous 26 months, while West Coast ports were 7.5% below. The coastal gap in August, at 23.5%, was the fifteenth straight month where the year over year percent changes in volume at East/Gulf Coast ports outperformed West Coast ports, and the second highest during that same period, according to McCown. The gap was primarily driven by a sharp drop in inbound volumes at Los Angeles and, to a lesser extent, Long Beach.
To put it simply, East and Gulf Coast ports are increasingly picking up volumes that West Coast ports are losing. And if you pull the charts back, you’ll see West Coast ports have been losing market share (as a % of the total inbound cargo) relatively consistently since 2016, coinciding with the opening of the expanded Panama Canal.
“Since mid-2021 there has been a more pronounced move away from the West Coast as shippers redirected container routings to minimize the effect of widely reported delays related to congestion. There has been some recovery from the December 2021 low point in the early part of 2022. However, the figures have returned to a downtrend since March and are now at record lows,” McCown writes.
More on this and other insights from August can be found in John McCown’s full report.
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The Port of Los Angeles reported its best single month in its history. In a media briefing, port executive director Gene Seroka announced the port processed 1,042,652 TEUs, 23k TEUs more than the July 2025 record.
U.S. container imports are finally beginning to slow after an unusually long peak shipping season that stretched through the summer and into early fall, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. The slowdown comes after months of stronger-than-expected cargo volumes at major U.S. ports, as retailers continued bringing in merchandise despite tariffs, inflation and higher transportation costs. Ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in August, up 0.4% from July but down 0.7% from a year earlier. August now appears to have been the busiest month of 2026, marking a shift from last month’s forecast that September would take the top spot. “Even with any fluctuations in final data, we’re likely past the busiest part of the year,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “The truth is that the peak season started early and was stretched out through the summer and early fall, with the difference from month to month often amounting to little more than a rounding error,” Gold said. The latest forecast puts September imports at 2.28 million TEUs, down from the 2.31 million TEUs projected a month ago. October is expected to ease further to 2.25 million TEUs before volumes fall to 2 million TEUs in November. Despite the expected slowdown, imports are still running well ahead of last year in some months. September volumes are forecast to rise 8.2% year over year, followed by an 8.5% increase in October. The revised outlook follows a peak season that has repeatedly defied expectations. Retailers moved merchandise into the country earlier this year to get ahead of tariff changes and supply chain uncertainty, initially raising expectations that imports would peak early and decline through the summer. Instead, volumes remained elevated, with shipping delays and resilient consumer demand helping extend the traditional peak season. The strength has been evident at individual ports. The Port of Los Angeles recorded its busiest three-month stretch on record during June, July and August, while the Port of Savannah reported a record September earlier this week, handling 504,015 TEUs, up 3.7% from a year earlier. Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said the economic outlook remains mixed, with consumers continuing to spend despite signs of weakening confidence. “Despite this, consumers appear to remain confident and cautious at the same time, with consumer confidence indexes sliding to multi-year lows while consumer spending continues to be robust in the face of increasing inflation,” Hackett said. For the full year, Global Port Tracker now expects imports at major U.S. container ports to reach 25.8 million TEUs, up 1.4% from 25.4 million TEUs in 2025. That is slightly above last month’s forecast of 25.7 million TEUs. Looking ahead, January 2027 imports are forecast at 2.07 million TEUs, down 1.9% year over year, followed by 1.92 million TEUs in February, up 1%. For retailers, the extended shipping season means much of the merchandise needed for the holidays is already in the country, reducing the need for another major import surge before year-end. “Most holiday merchandise has arrived, and the remainder of the year is just a matter of last-minute replenishment and preparation for early 2027,” Gold said.
The Port of Savannah handled a record 504,015 twenty-foot equivalent units in September, up 3.7% from a year earlier as strong imports and a later-than-usual peak season boosted volumes.
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