U.S. Container Imports Set to Decline Through 2025 as Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Trade

Following a near-record peak this summer, import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to steadily decline for the remainder of the year amid rising tariffs, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“We have seen the implementation of reciprocal tariffs across the globe, with a number of key trading partners being subjected to tariffs higher than the earlier 10% tariffs,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “We also continue to see more and more sectoral tariffs impacting a wider scope of products. Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success. These tariffs and disruptions to the supply chain are adding costs that will ultimately lead to higher prices for American consumers.”

A federal appeals court recently ruled against President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs, but left them in place while the ruling is under appeal to the Supreme Court. Trump has delayed an increase in tariffs on China by 90 days to November 10 to allow trade negotiations to continue, while an additional 25% tariff on India took effect in late August, bringing the additional tariff rate to 50%.

“Tariffs have had a significant impact on trade,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett noted. “The trade outlook for the final months of the year is not optimistic.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.36 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in July, up 20.1% from June as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariffs set to take effect in August, and up 1.8% year over year. It would be the second-busiest month on record, topped only by 2.4 million TEU in May 2022.

The forecast shows a progressive decline through the end of the year, with September projected at 2.12 million TEU (down 6.8% year over year), October at 1.95 million TEU (down 13.2%), November at 1.74 million TEU (down 19.7%), and December at 1.7 million TEU (down 20.1%), which would be the slowest month since March 2023.

While the falling monthly totals are related to tariffs, the significant year-over-year percentage declines reflect both this year’s early peak season and elevated import levels in late 2024 due to concerns about port strikes.

The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.6% year over year. However, the full year is forecast at 24.7 million TEU, down 3.4% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

The September forecast represents a more optimistic outlook compared to projections made a month earlier, with the annual TEU forecast for 2025 revised to 24.7 million (down 3.4% year-over-year) from the August forecast of 24.1 million (down 5.6%). This suggests importers may be weathering tariffs slightly better than initially feared, though the overall trend remains downward.

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