U.S. container ports are experiencing sustained high import volumes as retailers accelerate cargo shipments in response to new tariff threats and potential supply chain disruptions.
The latest Global Port Tracker report, released jointly by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, highlights significant growth in container handling despite ongoing trade tensions.
In a significant trade policy development, the Trump Administration recently announced a 25% tariff on most Canadian and Mexican goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. While the North American tariffs received a 30-day suspension, the China tariffs have already taken effect.
“Retailers continue to engage in diversification efforts. Unfortunately, it takes significant time to move supply chains, even if you can find available capacity,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. He warned that new tariffs would likely result in higher prices for American consumers.
“Retailers have engaged in mitigation strategies to minimize the potential impact of tariffs, including frontloading of some products, but that can lead to increased challenges because of added warehousing and related costs. We hope to resolve our outstanding border security issues as quickly as possible because there will be a significant impact on the economy if increased tariffs are maintained and expanded,” Gold added.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, provided insight into the tariffs’ varying impacts across transportation modes. He noted that Canadian and Mexican trade would see minimal immediate port impact since most shipments utilize truck, rail, or pipeline transportation. However, he cautioned that port cargo volumes could face significant challenges if broader tariffs on Asian and European goods lead to reduced consumer spending.
“As such, our view of North American imports has not changed significantly for the next six months,” he said.
The Global Port Tracker’s latest data shows impressive growth in inbound container volumes. U.S. ports processed 2.14 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in December, marking the busiest December on record despite a slight 0.9% decrease from November. The year-over-year increase was a substantial 14.4%.
Total container volume for 2024 reached 25.5 million TEUs, showing a 14.8% increase from 2023, approaching the pandemic-era record of 25.8 million TEUs set in 2021.
Looking ahead, the NRF projects continued growth through most of the first half of 2025. January is expected to handle 2.11 million TEUs, while February, typically slower due to Lunar New Year celebrations in China, is forecast at 1.96 million TEUs. Projections show steady increases through May, with volumes expected to reach 2.19 million TEUs before a slight decline in June.
Hackett maintains a cautious outlook, stating, “At this stage, the situation is fluid, and it’s too early to know if the tariffs will be implemented, removed or further delayed.”
Despite the uncertainties, their six-month forecast for North American imports remains largely unchanged.
Meanwhile, new figure from Descartes showed U.S. container imports surged to a record 2.487 million TEUs in January, marking a 9.4% increase over the previous year and surpassing the previous January high set in 2022.
“The impact of new and potential tariffs, coupled with a late Chinese Lunar New Year (January 29 – February 12), may have contributed to higher U.S. container imports in January,” said Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes. “These trade policy developments add significant uncertainty to global supply chains, increasing concerns about rising import costs and supply chain disruptions. As trade tensions escalate, businesses and consumers alike may face the risk of higher prices and prolonged market volatility.”
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