Photo: Shutterstock/Strikernia
The nation’s ten largest ports recorded a 14.2% year-over-year increase in inbound container volume in December, continuing a fifteen-month streak of growth, according to shipping expert John McCown’s latest analysis.
“The robust volume growth over the last fifteen months follows 15 straight months of generally double-digit percent year over year decreases compared to prior pandemic volume spikes,” he states in his report.
McCown’s data shows that for the full year 2024, inbound loads increased by 15.2% compared to 2023. This annual growth rate is the second-highest on record, exceeded only by 2021’s 17.5% increase. Outbound load growth, however, reached only 4.4%.
In his analysis comparing current figures to pre-pandemic levels, McCown notes that December 2024’s inbound loads were 24.2% higher than December 2019, representing a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4%, surpassing the historical ten-year CAGR of 3.8% observed from 2010 to 2020.
“Based on that metric on the movement of tangible goods, the US economy in 2024 looks vibrant and continues to outperform the rest of the world,” the report states. McCown also dismisses claims attributing this growth merely to front-loading, stating that such assertions appear “more anecdotal with no clear data supporting it.”
Looking to the future, McCown projects a long-term container volume growth rate of 2.7% annually. While this represents a slowdown from historical trends, he expects container shipping to maintain its competitive edge over other shipping segments, citing the economies of scale offered by modern large containerships.
“An under appreciated advantage of container shipping is the higher overall capacity utilization that it achieves compared to other segments. At a 2.7% growth rate, volume will double every 26 years, a fact that container port planners should keep top of mind,” he states.
The December analysis also revealed a reversal in outbound volumes, which turned negative after two consecutive months of growth—continuing a downward trend. This stark contrast between inbound and outbound performance highlights the persistent imbalance in US maritime trade flows.
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