Jet Fuel Shock Looms on U.S. West Coast as Asian Exports Dry Up

By Lori-Ann LaRocco – Energy export data shows South Korean jet fuel exports to the United States West Coast is dropping as countries around the world are holding onto the energy for its own self-preservation.

“South Korean jet fuel exports have slowed, currently averaging about half the pace so far in March that they were last year, and that pace should only slow further,” said Matt Smith lead oil analyst at Kpler. “This is problematic for the US West Coast, which is the leading destination. The US West Coast relies on South Korea for 85 percent of its jet fuel imports.”

The decrease in South Korea jet fuel exports to the U.S. follows China and Thailand restricting refined product exports. 

“It’s particularly concerning is if other countries, such as Japan and Korea follow those countries lead in restricting refined product exports and a hoarding mentality sets in as politicians order builds in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventory to ensure their own domestic supply,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

The origin of jet fuel imports for the West Coast come from Asia due to its proximity. The reason- refinery capacity on the West Coast.

Phillips66 Rodeo refinery in Los Angeles and Valero Benicia refineries have closed because of California energy regulations, high gas prices and reduced gasoline demand due to state banning the sale of new cars with gasoline engines beginning 2035. 

“These refinery closures are going to result in an increase of imports,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. “Estimates based on refinery configuration and publicly available information that the Phillips66 refinery in Los Angeles which was shut by October 2025 produced about 13,000-15,000 barrels per day of jet fuel and Valero Benicia which just shut down produced 10,000 – 15,000 barrels per day.

 Lipow stressed the loss of west coast domestic jet fuel supply would have to come from imports.

Shipbrokers and oil experts tell gCaptain the closure is beginning to ripple through Jet fuel markets.

“Key refineries and export routes are disrupted,” said Jelle Vreeman, an independent shipbroker.  “Jet supply chains are tightening, and the usual flow of product toward North West Europe is at risk of significant disruption, potentially pushing prices higher and squeezing supply even more creating an even more bullish market.”

U.S. Jet fuel inventories will be key in withstanding the duration of the strike.

For the week ending February 26, 2026, inventories for PADD 5 jet fuel were 11.1 million barrels.

“Which is at the higher end of the range over the last 35 years,” said Lipow. “In 2025, PADD 5 imported 93,000 barrels per day of jet fuel. Korea supplied 80,000, China 4,000, Japan 3,000 and small amounts from others.”

Lipow added, “In 2024 PADD5 jet fuel imports go to Alaska about 31,000 Hawaii 28,000 and California 22,000. In 2025, imports increased to another 12,000 barrels per day probably to California from the refinery closures. Note how much goes to Alaska, it is refueling of cargo planes coming from Asia. Hawaii only has one refinery, hence a lot of imports.”

“The price of jet fuel will increase, along with all other petroleum derivatives,” said Lynn Hughes, investigative analyst at ImportGenius. “This has significant implications for air freight and passenger travel and will drive certain routes and firms into unprofitability.”

If the West Coast needed jet fuel due to limited South Korean imports, only Jones Act vessels would be able to move additional domestic crude or refined jet fuel.The United States has approximately 49 active Jones Act tankers according to Marad which move energy cargoes between U.S. ports. The Jones Act energy trade moves refined products from refining centers in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi to states like Florida. The vessels also move crude from Alaska to refineries in Washington State and California.

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