Russian Oil Stuck at Sea Booms as Tanker Logjams in Asia Expand

By Julian Lee (Bloomberg) — Russia’s crude exports hit the highest in over 2 ½ years, but delays in offloading cargoes saw another jump in oil held on tankers, with a build-up of vessels anchored off the coasts of India and China.

While four-week average flows climbed to the highest since May 2023 in the period to Dec. 21, delivering cargoes remains a challenge, with the amount of oil at sea jumping 48% since the end of August. At least 20 tankers hauling Moscow’s crude are awaiting permission to dock at Chinese and Indian ports, while others have taken months to deliver their cargoes.

Four-week average shipments have been on an upward trend in December, recovering the losses of the previous month, with some volatility likely caused by weather-related disruptions. The slide in exports observed during November followed the US blacklisting of Russia’s two biggest exporters, Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC.

A 12th straight drop in prices left the value of shipments close to a three-year low.

Moscow shipped 3.87 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Dec. 21, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s up by about 200,000 from the period to Dec. 14, driven by a rebound in weekly shipments from the Baltic port of Primorsk.

A sharp reduction in processing likely freed up more crude for export. Refinery runs remain below the seasonal average amid Ukrainian drone attacks, with one strike damaging the Yaroslavl plant north of Moscow. Its daily capacity to process about 300,000 barrels makes it one of Russia’s top-10 fuel-producing facilities.

A 12th straight drop in crude prices has added to Moscow’s difficulties, with the decline in Russian grades much steeper than those seen in global benchmarks. The need to offer big discounts has driven Urals down by about $25 a barrel, or 40%, from its recent peak in mid-July, with prices falling as low as $34 a barrel by the end of the week. Pacific-loading ESPO has fared a little better, losing about 30% of its value over the same period.

The build-up of Russian crude at sea also coincides with the US stepping up actions against tankers headed to or from Venezuela, which President Donald Trump accuses of hauling sanctioned crude. Those actions may be raising concerns among shippers and buyers of Russian barrels, who worry their cargoes could also be targeted.

Numerous ships have disappeared from tracking systems in the Riau archipelago, northeast of Singapore, a favored location for transferring sanctioned Iranian barrels between vessels that’s growing in popularity among carriers of Moscow’s crude seeking to disguise the origin of their cargoes. Tracks suggest that at least six Russian cargo switches have taken place there since November, with another six fully-laden tankers disappearing in the area so far this month. Other switches have been observed close to the Suez Canal and near the Russian port of Kozmino in the Pacific.

Crude Shipments

A total of 38 tankers loaded 28.31 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Dec. 21, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was up sharply from a revised 22.73 million barrels on 29 ships the previous week.

On a daily average basis, shipments in the week to Dec. 21 jumped to 4.04 million barrels a day, up by about 800,000 barrels a day and reversing most of the slump seen the previous week. Separately, three cargoes of Kazakhstan’s Kebco grade was shipped from Novorossiysk during the week. One of two working moorings at the nearby CPC terminal was damaged in a sea-drone attack, which may have resulted in some Kazakh barrels being diverted to Novorossiysk until the loading buoy is replaced.

The jump in flows was driven by a sharp climb in shipments from the Baltic port of Primorsk.

Export Value

On a four-week average basis, the gross value of Moscow’s exports edged up to $1.13 billion a week in the 28 days to Dec. 21, rising by 2% from the revised figure for the period to Dec. 14. The impact of the higher export quantities was largely offset by the 12th straight drop in average prices to leave the value close to the lowest since January 2023.

Using this measure, the export prices of Russia’s Urals from the Baltic fell by about $1.30 a barrel to $38.73, while prices for Black Sea cargoes were down by $0.90 a barrel to $36.55. The price of Pacific ESPO crude dropped by $1.60 to average $49.33 a barrel. Delivered prices in India also fell, down by $1 to $56.03 a barrel, another new low for the period since March 2023. All prices are according to numbers from Argus Media.

On a weekly basis, the value of exports averaged about $1.11 billion in the 7 days to Dec. 21, up by 16% from the period to Dec. 14, with the rebound in quantities more than offsetting a drop in prices. 

Flows by Destination

Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, jumped to a record 3.7 million barrels a day in the 28 days to Dec. 21, up from a revised 3.42 million in the period to Dec. 14.

While the amount of Russian crude heading to both China and India appears to be falling sharply, that’s being offset by growing quantities on vessels yet to show a final destination, allowing for much of that pattern to be reversed. Tankers are increasingly showing interim destinations until they are well across the Arabian Sea, while some never show a final calling point, even after mooring to discharge.

Vessels are also spending longer at sea, with several tankers diverting from initial destinations on the west coast of India or in Turkey. They are also getting held up waiting to discharge at Chinese ports.

There is now more crude on tankers yet to show a final destination than the combined amount on ships signaling that they are heading to China, India or Turkey.

Flows on tankers signaling Chinese ports stood at 950,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Dec. 21, down from 1.01 million for the period to Dec. 14. The amount destined for India fell to 840,000 barrels a day from a revised 900,000 barrels a day in the period to Dec. 14. But there is the equivalent of 1.9 million barrels a day on vessels yet to show a final destination.

Of that, about 1.68 million barrels a day is on ships from Russia’s western ports showing their destination as Port Said or the Suez Canal, or those from Pacific ports with no clear delivery point, and a further 230,000 barrels a day is on tankers yet to signal a destination.

In the past, those cargoes have almost all ended up in India or China, but tougher US sanctions are keeping that oil on the water while Russia and its buyers seek workarounds. The amount of Russian crude at sea has jumped by 48% since the end of August.

Flows to Turkey in the four weeks to Dec. 21 slipped to about 140,000 barrels a day from 230,000 barrels a day in the period to Dec. 14. No Russian crude has been shipped to Syria since September. Tankers hauling Russian crude to the east Mediterranean nation rarely signal their destination and usually disappear from automated tracking systems when they’re south of Crete, making it difficult to estimate flows in advance of ships arriving off the port of Baniyas, where they can usually be picked up on satellite photos.

© 2025 Bloomberg L.P.

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