China’s push for import independence combined with falling soybean demand has driven the country’s imported grain shipments down 51% year-over-year this month.
According to BIMCO, this decline has significantly affected the dry bulk shipping sector—particularly Panamax vessels, which handle 83% of China’s grain cargoes. The Baltic Exchange’s Panamax Index has now dropped 41% compared to last year and this week hit its lowest level since May 2020.
BIMCO’s analysis reveals varying impacts on major exporters: Brazil, which accounts for 47% of shipments, saw a 29% decline, while U.S. cargoes, representing 22% of shipments, decreased by 57%.
The association notes that despite reduced volumes, the preference for Brazilian cargoes provides some relief through longer sailing distances in the dry bulk sector, with Brazil-China routes being about a quarter longer than U.S.-China routes under normal Panama Canal conditions.
BIMCO’s Shipping Analysis Manager Filipe Gouveia attributes the decline to several factors, including low crusher margins and high inventories following substantial imports earlier in the year. The analysis also points to China’s strengthened domestic production, with record harvests in 2024 reducing import needs for maize and wheat.
BIMCO points out that China’s domestic agricultural sector has grown substantially since 2018, with wheat, maize, and soya bean production steadily rising. In 2024, harvest volumes increased 2% while consumption grew only 1%.
In its outlook, BIMCO anticipates a potential recovery in grain shipments as soybean inventories decrease and low prices encourage purchasing. However, the organization warns that wheat and maize imports might remain low due to strong domestic supply, with 2025 total grain shipments potentially falling below 2024 levels without significant improvement in Chinese domestic demand.
“Overall, we expect grain shipments to China to recover in the medium term, as soya bean inventories fall, and low prices incentivise purchasing. However, wheat and maize shipments could remain weak amid stronger domestic supply. Unless Chinese domestic demand significantly improves throughout 2025, grain shipments to China could fall short of 2024 levels,” says Gouveia.
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