Dispatch 37 – Trump 2.0

Mike Schuler
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November 9, 2024

gCaptain Club

Dispatch No. 37


Hello Club Members! Here is your weekly Dispatch with all the maritime news you need to know to end your week.

Trump Wins!

Republican presidential nominee former U.S. President Donald Trump is joined onstage by his wife Melania at his election night rally at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., November 6, 2024. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

Top Stories

Tariff Troubles, Trade Disruptions, and Geopolitical Conflicts Await Trump’s Second Term

Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sent shockwaves through the global shipping industry. With his plans for steep, across-the-board tariffs—up to 20% on all U.S. imports and a whopping 60% to 100% on Chinese goods—Trump’s victory has reignited fears of a costly second trade war. The container shipping industry, in particular, is on edge as it braces for a new round of rate surges, potential supply chain crunches, and global shifts in trade routes. Meanwhile, the energy and tanker sectors anxiously await clarity on Trump’s plans for sanctions against Iran and Russia. Any policy changes are expected to significantly impact global trade patterns.

Frontloading Frenzy: Importers Race Against Time

Shipping analysts predict a pre-emptive rush on imports, with U.S. companies scrambling to frontload goods before Trump’s planned tariffs take effect. Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, notes that this “knee-jerk reaction” could spike demand on already stressed trade lanes. With bottlenecks from conflicts in the Red Sea adding further strain, freight rates are likely to soar again as shippers race against the clock.

A Potential Repeat of 2018’s Shipping Chaos

The industry vividly remembers the last time Trump imposed sweeping tariffs. The 2018 hikes spurred a 70% spike in container rates, and it’s expected that this round could be even more severe. Current spot rates to the U.S. West and East Coasts are already 167% and 134% higher than last year, largely due to ongoing geopolitical disruptions in the Red Sea. Xeneta’s Sand warns that another tariff-induced rush will compound existing pressures, potentially pushing shipping costs to new highs and setting the stage for logistical headaches throughout 2025.

Container Shipping Faces Long-Term Fallout

While the container shipping sector will likely feel the initial brunt of Trump’s policies, experts are increasingly concerned about longer-term impacts. Trade flows could experience deep disruptions as companies recalibrate sourcing and logistics strategies, potentially redirecting U.S.-China trade to emerging markets over time. Seanergy Maritime’s CEO, Stamatis Tsantanis, highlighted how this could reshape global trade routes, leading to unforeseen complications for shipping lines that rely on traditional East-West lanes. “Shipping, as a cornerstone of global trade, is susceptible to policy shifts like Trump’s proposed tariffs… Immediate effects on shipping are expected to be limited, though long-term impacts may arise,” said Tsantanis.

Dry Bulk Eyes New Opportunities Amid Trade Shifts

For the dry bulk sector, the outlook is more mixed. While Trump’s tariffs may reduce direct U.S.-China trade, new routes could emerge. For example, as China shifts away from U.S. soybeans, Brazilian exports—which hit 74 million tons this year, compared to 26 million from the U.S.—stand to gain. Likewise, iron ore and coal shipments may find new markets if China initiates infrastructure projects to counteract a 2.5% growth slowdown expected from U.S. tariffs. The trade dynamic in dry bulk shipping is adapting, and analysts are optimistic that the sector will see fresh growth from redirected demand.

Tankers Hope to Benefit from U.S. Oil Boom

Under Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” energy policy, U.S. oil production is expected to ramp up, with increased exports creating opportunities for tankers. Yet Trump’s plan could have mixed consequences. On the one hand, sanctions on Iranian oil could reduce shadow fleet competition, boosting demand for mainstream tankers. On the other hand, if Trump successfully brokers peace between Russia and Ukraine, as promised, the normalization of trade flows could slightly dampen tanker demand. As always, the tanker market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, and Trump’s return brings a new set of unknowns.

Sanctions and Oil Supplies in Flux

Trump’s tough stance on sanctions could also alter the oil tanker landscape. Analysts speculate that a revived “maximum-pressure” approach on Iran may cut off up to 1 million barrels of Iranian crude daily, while potential new restrictions on Venezuela add further uncertainty. Yet Trump’s warmer relationship with Russia could also mean a willingness to reduce Russia’s oil sanctions as part of diplomatic deals. As International Seaways CEO Lois Zabrocky notes, Trump’s approach is unpredictable, and tanker companies will need to closely monitor developments to manage these risks effectively.

Global Geopolitical Challenges Loom

Trump’s second term comes amid a landscape of profound trade and security challenges that contributing to global supply chain disruptions. In the Red Sea, Houthi attacks on shipping routes add to the risks already burdening the industry, as vessels face costly detours around conflict zones. Meanwhile, China’s increasingly assertive claims in the South China Sea threaten the safety of shipping lanes vital to global commerce. The ongoing war in Ukraine, too, continues to impact grain shipments out of the Black Sea, limiting exports and contributing to volatile food prices. Adding to the mix is the ongoing drought in the Panama Canal, which has reduced the canal’s transit capacity, forcing ships to find alternative, often longer routes, and compounding costs.

Renewables Face a Rocky Road

Trump’s return may signal rough seas for the renewable energy sector, particularly offshore wind. Although Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) established substantial funding for clean energy, Trump has criticized the act’s cost and promised to roll back unspent funds. While this might slow down federal support for renewables, experts believe the renewable boom will largely continue, as red states and Republican allies benefit significantly from IRA investments. Still, a Trump administration could use executive powers to limit federal leases for offshore wind or restrict agency budgets, placing the offshore wind industry in the crosshairs.

Global Trade’s Uncertain Future

Shipping executives are cautious. Lloyd’s List reports that several shipping leaders are wary of the potential for prolonged uncertainty. Jacob Meldgaard, CEO of Torm, points out that “Trump’s aggressive approach to trade and foreign policy is likely to fuel unpredictability in tanker markets.” This sentiment is echoed across the industry as shippers and operators brace for a potentially turbulent period. Yet some believe that shipping’s adaptive nature will ultimately prevail, with goods finding alternative routes and trade patterns adjusting in response to new tariffs.

As Trump prepares for his second inauguration, the shipping world watches closely, bracing for potential turbulence. From container rates to dry bulk flows and tanker markets, the next four years are set to redefine the maritime landscape in ways that may be just as unexpected as Trump’s return itself.


Weekend Reading

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