An are of thunderstorms south of Jamaica is forecast to intensify into Tropical Storm Rafael some time Monday, with further strengthening into a hurricane expected by late Tuesday as it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.
The development marks an unusual November threat to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico’s offshore oil and natural gas production, although the system’s long-range forecast remains highly uncertain.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Tropical Depression Eighteen, the precursor to Rafael, was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 76.4 West as of 1:00 PM EST Monday. Moving north at approximately 9 mph, the system is projected to shift northwest, passing near Jamaica late Monday night, the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and approaching Cuba by Wednesday.
NHC forecasters note, “The environmental factors of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm SSTs support intensification, and since the system now has a well-organized circulation, there is increasing confidence of steady strengthening until the system reaches Cuba or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.”
TD Eighteen has the potential to become the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which has already seen five hurricanes make landfall in the U.S.
Hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin lasts from June 1 through November 30.
The storm’s unusual late-season trajectory has raised concerns among meteorologists and the energy sector alike. As it approaches the Gulf of Mexico, model solutions diverge, leading to low confidence in the track forecast.
Hurricane conditions are anticipated in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday, with portions of Cuba potentially facing similar conditions by early Wednesday. The NHC warns of “dangerous impacts from hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and portions of western Cuba.”
As Rafael progresses, residents in the Florida Keys are advised to monitor the situation closely, with tropical storm watches possibly being issued later today. The system’s entry into the Gulf of Mexico later this week could have far-reaching implications, though the long-range forecast remains uncertain.
Beyond wind threats, Rafael is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and parts of Cuba, with potential flooding and mudslides. This heavy precipitation is forecasted to spread northward, affecting Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States by mid to late week.
Join the gCaptain Club for curated content, insider opinions, and vibrant community discussions.
Join the 110,264 members that receive our newsletter.
Have a news tip? Let us know.
Energy regulator Ofgem approved five new subsea power links from Great Britain to the continent and Ireland as the country seeks to profit from a boom in wind capacity and become a net electricity exporter by the end of the decade.
Hurricane Rafael may have fizzled out, but its lingering impact on Gulf oil and gas production continues. After Hurricane Rafael roared through the Gulf of Mexico last week, more than...
The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has announced the completion of the final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the proposed SouthCoast Wind Project, marking a crucial step towards the...
Access exclusive insights, engage in vibrant discussions, and gain perspectives from our CEO.
Sign Up
Maritime and offshore news trusted by our 110,264 members delivered daily straight to your inbox.
Essential news coupled with the finest maritime content sourced from across the globe.
Sign Up
Join The Club
