Labor Drama or Economic Boom? What’s Really Fueling the Surge in U.S. Container Imports

The ten largest U.S. container ports reported a 10.9% year-over-year increase in inbound volumes in September, marking the twelfth consecutive month of year-over-year growth, though slightly below August’s 19.5% jump, according to John McCown’s latest U.S. Container Ports Report.

While some have attributed September’s unseasonable strength to pulling volumes forward ahead of the critical October 1st deadline for a labor deal between the ILA and USMX at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports, McCown argues that the uptick more likely reflects robust volume strength driven by underlying economic activity rather than fears of potential labor disruption.

September’s inbound volume reached 2,143,069 TEUs, securing its place as the fourth-highest ever recorded. Despite being 3.2% below August’s figures, this performance still outpaced May—traditionally the busiest month due to holiday inventory build-up—by a substantial 8.4%.

McCown’s analysis cuts through the noise, attributing the volume surge primarily to genuine economic activity rather than reactionary measures to potential labor unrest or political uncertainties.

“A portion of the recent strength in US inbound volume may result from pulling forward volume, with concern related to possible East/Gulf Coast labor unrest and increased tariffs if Trump is elected the primary reasons. However, the data shows that is minimal, as there has not been a noticeable increase in inventories or the related inventory to sales ratio,” McCown writes.

The report highlights a 16.2% year-over-year increase in inbound volume for the first nine months of 2024, the strongest performance since the pandemic-era surge. This growth comes on the heels of a volatile four-year period, which McCown says suggests a return to more stable, yet robust, import demand patterns.

West Coast Resurgence

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of September’s data is the resurgence of West Coast ports, which have outperformed their East and Gulf Coast counterparts in twelve of the last fourteen months. West Coast ports posted a 12.1% year-over-year volume increase compared to 9.5% for East and Gulf Coast ports in September.

McCown notes this “coastal pendulum” shift reflects shippers’ strategic moves to mitigate risks associated with potential East Coast and Gulf Coast labor disruptions, echoing similar patterns observed during the West Coast’s ILWU-PMA contract negotiations in mid-2023.

“While the data through September doesn’t show noticeable signs of pulling forward shipments related to the ILA situation, it does show coastal shifting. Just as we saw some shippers avoiding the West Coast in favor of the East/Gulf Coast when the ILWU contract was up for renewal in mid-2023, we can now see the reverse happening more in the September statistics,” said McCown.

As the maritime industry closely monitors these shifts, the reduced spread in coastal preferences underscores a West Coast comeback. This resurgence potentially reverses a two-year trend that saw East and Gulf Coast ports dominating.

Looking ahead, U.S. ports seem poised to continue their growth trajectory, with inbound container volumes 9.1% above the 50-month average. While external factors like labor agreements and tariff uncertainties still sway routing decisions, McCown’s analysis concludes that September’s performance reflects the underlying economic strength driving this year’s unexpected strength in U.S. container volumes.

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