Houthi Attacks on Saudi Tankers Constrict Crude Trade

The flow of Middle East energy trade is evolving yet again after attacks on two tankers in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi militants.

In a recent maritime security webinar, Lloyd’s List analysts tracking ship movements and attack patterns in real time warned that the Red Sea has moved from a “gradual normalization” phase back into acute uncertainty.

“I think that the situation in the Red Sea and in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz has fundamentally changed, and we’re never going back to what it was before,” said Bridget Diakun, senior risk and compliance analyst at Lloyd’s List. “We’re not going back really to a time where we were before February 28 in the Strait of Hormuz. I don’t think I would describe it as a no-go area.”

Diakun noted that during the peak of the Red Sea crisis, traffic was down about 60%.

“Depending on what the Houthis do right now, perhaps we’ll see transits drop even further than that 60% mark,” said Diakun. “But again, everyone has different risk appetites, and I think people also adjust to the situation.”

Contributing to the decision to transit through a war zone is fatigue. Tanker owners and operators eventually accept the situation as time goes on. War risk becomes the new normal.

“I think the longer this goes, we will definitely watch the space to see how the transits fluctuate,” said Diakun. “I do expect it to move in ebbs and flows depending on what’s happening at a geopolitical level.”

Matthew Rajendra, senior reporter for Lloyd’s List, added that even non-Saudi-linked vessels carrying crude oil from Saudi Arabia could also be targets. To avoid being attacked, some commercial vessels, including tankers, are posting their crew affiliations and nationalities via their public tracking systems.

While there have been tanker diversions away from the Red Sea, some vessels continue to enter the region.

Vortexa tracking shows a sanctioned Iranian tanker carrying crude from Kharg Island transiting the Red Sea.

Lloyd’s List has reported that one vessel owned by COSCO has also powered through the blockade.

“Our team was able to get confirmation that COSCO was able to get clearance from the Houthis to get out of the Red Sea,” said Rajendra. “But this raises bigger questions, such as whether any payments may or may not have been made for this passage. It’s still unclear.”

The Houthi militants have claimed responsibility for attacks on at least two Saudi-linked tankers in the Red Sea, including the Ann Ciao, which was verified as the vessel reported hit by UKMTO. A second claimed attack on the tanker Laylaremains uncorroborated by Lloyd’s List. The vessel went dark in mid-July, according to Lloyd’s List, and has not reappeared on AIS. This has complicated efforts to confirm its damage or position.

Vortexa told gCaptain it has observed a couple of vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb with AIS turned off, with the common factor being that either the vessel or its cargo is linked to Saudi Arabia.

“Regarding Yanbu, we have observed three liftings in the last two days versus seven over the previous two days. Should attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb continue or become sustained, it’s likely we may see transits via the Cape of Good Hope to load at Yanbu instead of transiting the Suez Canal,” said George Morris, graduate market analyst at Vortexa.

Yanbu on the Red Sea coast has functioned as a key contingency export route for Saudi Arabia during the Strait of Hormuz crisis. If the Red Sea itself becomes severely constrained, Saudi crude exports from Yanbu and other western ports would face a chokepoint from the west, while exports from eastern ports remain constrained by the Strait of Hormuz.

“The impact is even more severe because crude oil and refined products were transiting the Suez Canal from the Mediterranean into the Red Sea on their way to India and Asia,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. “The blockade impacts 3.1 million barrels per day of Saudi crude oil plus another 3.0 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products that transit the canal in a north-to-south direction. The total impact equals 6.1 million barrels per day, according to ship-tracking services.”

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that approximately 4.9 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products transited the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline during the first half of 2025.

“If the SUMED pipeline carried 1.0 million barrels per day, that leaves 3.9 million barrels per day on tankers through the canal in both directions—south to north and north to south,” explained Lipow. “It would be the north-to-south direction that would see the additional impact. There are various estimates of how much oil is flowing in the north-to-south direction; it appears that 3.0 million barrels per day is the average. Much of that flow is Russian, North African, and even U.S. crude headed to India and Asia.”

Editorial Standards · Corrections · About gCaptain

Subscribe for Daily Maritime Insights

Sign up for gCaptain’s newsletter and never miss an update

— trusted by our 104,536 members