Falling Russian Oil Prices Drive Exports’ Value to Two-Year Low

(Bloomberg) —

The value of Russia’s crude shipments hit a two-year low in the four weeks to May 25 even as Moscow shrugged off a threat that the G-7 group of nations may tighten the price cap on the country’s exports.

Flows averaged 3.39 million barrels a day in the four weeks to May 25, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. That was down by just 10,000 barrels a day on the period to May 18. But the gross value of those cargoes was the lowest since April 2023. 

The value of Russia’s seaborne crude exports has been trending downward for more than 13 months. Since export income reached about $1.95 billion a week in the 28-day period to April 21, 2024, the price of Russia’s crude has plunged by 28%, while the volume of shipments is down by about 8%. It’s unclear whether sanctions have played a significant role in either trend.

Nevertheless, the G-7 nations are considering reducing the price cap above which Russian crude exports cannot use western ships or services to $50 a barrel from its current level of $60. With Urals crude now selling at about $52 a barrel, the cap is having no material impact. Even if it’s reduced, the price cap may not crimp flows, with a huge shadow fleet of tankers amassed by Russia to keep its oil moving without western involvement.

Sanctions imposed on those ships by the UK and the European Union appear to have little impact, with buyers in China and India allowing blacklisted vessels to discharge at their ports, tracking data show. US measures appear more effective, but even those are starting to be ignored.

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he was “absolutely” considering new sanctions against Russia over the ongoing onslaught against Ukraine, though he gave no details.

Crude Shipments

A total of 31 tankers loaded 23.42 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to May 25, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was down from 23.79 million barrels on 32 ships the previous week.

Crude flows in the period to May 25 stood at about 3.39 million barrels a day on a four-week average basis, down by 10,000 barrels a day from the period to May 18. Using more volatile weekly figures, they dropped by about 50,000 barrels from the seven days to May 18.

There was one shipment of Kazakhstan’s KEBCO crude during the week from the Black Sea p1ort of Novorossiysk.

Export Value

The gross value of Moscow’s exports fell by about $20 million, or 1%, to $1.26 billion in the week to May 25, with the drop in flows partly offset by a small increase in weekly average prices.  

Export prices of Russian Urals crude from the Baltic rose by about $0.30 a barrel to average $51.80, while Black Sea cargoes were up by $0.20 at $52.40 a barrel. The price of key Pacific grade ESPO fell by about $0.20 to $57 a barrel. Delivered prices in India were virtually unchanged at $62.90 a barrel, all according to numbers from Argus Media.

On a four-week average basis, the export price of Russia’s crude shipments slipped for a seventh straight week, with Urals down by another $0.40 a barrel and Pacific ESPO crude dropping by a further £0.70. Using this measure, the value of exports fell by 1% in the period to May 18 to about $1.25 billion a week, a new low in the period since April 2023.

Flows by Destination

Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, edged lower to 3.05 million barrels a day in the 28 days to May 25.

The figures include about 350,000 barrels a day on ships from Western ports showing their destination as Port Said or the Suez Canal, or those from Pacific ports with no clear delivery point.

Flows to Turkey in the four weeks to May 25 rose to about 340,000 barrels a day, up by about 30,000 barrels a day from the revised figure for the previous week to the highest since February.

© 2025 Bloomberg L.P.

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