Confidence High for Above-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service forecasters have predicted that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than normal due to a combination of warmer-than-average ocean temperatures and shift to La Nina.

The hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, has an 85% probability of above-normal activity—the highest confidence forecasters have had in any above-average seasonal outlook—with a 10% chance of being near-normal and only a 5% chance of falling below-normal.

NOAA forecasters are predicting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms, with winds reaching at least 39 mph. Out of these, between 8 to 13 are anticipated to escalate into hurricanes, exhibiting winds exceeding 74 mph. Furthermore, 4 to 7 could potentially become major hurricanes, categorized as 3, 4, or 5, with wind speeds over 111 mph. Forecasters have 70% confidence in these predictions.

The prediction also reportedly marks the highest number of hurricanes ever forecasted by NOAA in its annual May forecast, exceeding the 2010 forecast of 14-23 storms.

Several factors are contributing to this expected increase in hurricane activity. These include near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, the development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and decreased wind shear. All of these conditions are known to foster the formation of tropical storms.

NOAA scientists expect a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which tend to lessen wind shear in the tropics and are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity. This, coupled with abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, creates more energy to fuel storm development.

This hurricane season may also see an above-normal west African monsoon, leading to African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longest-lived Atlantic storms. Light trade winds will further enable hurricanes to grow in strength without disruption from strong wind shear and will minimize ocean cooling. The human-caused climate change is a significant contributing factor, warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge.

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