By Bloomberg News
May 6, 2025 (Bloomberg) –China’s trade flows increased at the end of April, indicating the damage from US tariffs has yet to manifest in actual shipments even though the trade war is widely expected to eventually slow the world’s second-largest economy.
Chinese ports processed 6.7 million containers in the seven days through April 27, according to data released by the Ministry of Transport on Tuesday. That represents an increase of 7% from the same week last year, according to Bloomberg calculations. For the four weeks ending on April 27, the number expanded at a similar pace from a year earlier.
As sea cargo accounts for the vast majority of China’s overseas shipments, the data foreshadow what’s likely to be a resilient set of official figures on April exports to be released on Friday. Companies potentially shipped more to Southeast Asia and other places where the US has suspended most tariffs.
While there are exemptions, US tariffs at a prohibitively high level of 145% are widely expected to weaken an important source of global demand. That could lead exports to contract in 2025, diminishing an important growth driver for China.
Air freight also held up in April, with the number of international cargo flights surging 30% in the four weeks ended April 27 from a year earlier. That’s likely a result of soaring sales at online shopping platforms like Temu and Shein ahead of the May 2 deadline for the “de minimis” tariff loophole to be closed.
Economists polled by Bloomberg forecast exports will grow 2.5% from a year ago. That would be a slowdown from the 12% jump in the previous month but still a solid result given the massive US tariff hike.
Net exports contributed to 40% of economic growth in the first quarter this year, up from 30% in the whole of 2024, according to official data.
Despite the overall resilience, there are signs that trade flow between China and the US has already plummeted. The number of cargo ships that stopped at ports in China and were bound for the US has plunged to around 47 at present from a peak of 73 in mid-April, according to ship tracking compiled by Bloomberg.
The official sea and air cargo numbers were released after about a week’s delay.
© 2025 Bloomberg L.P.
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