Mexico's Port of Manzanillo. Credit: JRomero04 / Shutterstock.com
The China-Mexico trade route has experienced unprecedented growth in 2024, with shipping volumes surging 18.9% in the first nine months compared to 2023, according to Oslo-based freight benchmarking and market intelligence platform Xeneta.
June marked a historic peak with 135,724 TEU moving between the two nations.
“The dramatic surge in demand has led to extraordinary rate volatility on this trade lane,” notes Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta. “We’ve seen spot rates peak six times in 2024 alone on the China to Mexico West Coast route, compared to just three peaks on the China to US West Coast trade.”
This volatility was particularly evident when spot rates hit USD 7,770 per FEU on July 1st, marking a staggering 200% year-over-year increase. However, the market has since cooled, with rates dropping 51% from their July peak, Xeneta reports.
“What we’re observing is characteristic of an immature trade lane,” Sand explains. “Despite impressive growth figures, the actual volume pales in comparison to major fronthaul trades, making it particularly susceptible to rate fluctuations.”
Looking ahead to 2025, the trade route faces several challenges. Concerns about infrastructure capacity and potential bottlenecks are mounting as import volumes grow. Additionally, geopolitical tensions could impact the trade, particularly regarding suspicions of tariff circumvention through Mexico into the US.
“While current spot rates are trending downward, shippers should brace for continued volatility in 2025,” Sand concludes. “The spread between long-term and short-term rates has narrowed significantly to USD 728 per FEU, down from USD 5,831 in June, indicating a market still finding its equilibrium.”
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