Carriers Roll Out Rate Increases Amid US-China Tariff Pause

By Alison Koo (The Loadstar) –

After the US and Chinese governments agreed to slash reciprocal tariffs, shipping lines are expecting an early peak season on the transpacific eastbound trade, and have announced surcharges of $1,000-$2,000 per 40ft, said container shipping consultancy Linerlytica today.

Peak season is traditionally between July and September, when US and European retailers stock up with goods from Chinese factories for the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday seasons.

During the 90-day grace period of reduced tariffs, US importers are expected to front-load to avoid potential hikes once the window closes.

“The 115% cut in US tariffs on imports from China was larger than expected amid signs of severe strain on US import volumes that would have hit store shelves in the coming weeks. This is now set to reverse, with an import surge expected over the next three months that could exceed the Covid-era peaks,” Linerlytica said.

Under US Federal Maritime Commission regulations, carriers must announce price changes 30 days before they come into effect. However, a number of carriers currently have a 15 May general rate increase (GRI) on transpacific eastbound shipments already in place, which could prove to be first GRI in months to actually stick.

ONE announced a $1,000 per 40ft GRI on Thursday, while CMA CGM, Yang Ming and Zim have $2,000 per 40ft GRIs slated and Cosco, HMM, Hapag-Lloyd and Evergreen’s 15 May GRIs are set at $3,000 per 40ft.

All seven carriers also have identical GRIs set to be implemented on 1 June, which could be an acid test for whether there is an early peak season on the trade, and show what US imports’ inventory levels are looking like.

Last Friday, the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) showed the Shanghai-US west coast rate gained 3% from the previous week, to $2,347 per 40ft, as liner operators trimmed capacity and pushed for rate restorations in hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade tensions.

Linerlytica said: “Current spot rates are largely holding since the 1 May hike, at around $2,400 per 40ft, but are expected to surge over the coming weeks to above $3,000, and could continue to creep upwards after June if demand rebounds strongly as retailers replenish their inventories after the sharp drop in cargo shipments from China in April.”

Taiwan line Yang Ming, which today reported that Q1 25 revenue of $1.38bn, up 4%, had led to a net profit of $238.09m, down 23%, agreed the 90-day pause in the tariff war may improve transpacific cargo flows.

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