World’s Shipowners Are Eyeing the Exit, But They’re Not Rushing For It Just Yet

Following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran and a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, shipping industry leaders say vessels trapped inside the Persian Gulf are eager to leave – but will likely wait for clearer instructions before making a move.

According to BIMCO the industry is now in a holding pattern as operators await detailed guidance from both Washington and Tehran on how transits will actually work in practice.

“Ships trapped in the Persian Gulf will be interested in leaving as soon as it is safe to do so,” said Jakob Larsen, BIMCO’s Chief Safety & Security Officer. “But leaving without prior coordination with the U.S. and Iran would entail heightened risk and would not be advisable.”

That caution reflects the reality that, despite the ceasefire announcement, the Strait remains a highly volatile operating environment.

Larsen warned that if too many vessels attempt to exit at once, the narrow and congested waterway could quickly become a navigational hazard, raising the risk of collisions or groundings. At the same time, Iran’s stated intention to control transits introduces an additional layer of uncertainty.

More concerning, he said, is the potential for miscalculation.

Iran’s military command structure has been degraded by weeks of strikes, increasing the risk of miscommunication between authorities approving vessel movements and units controlling weapons systems. In a worst-case scenario, that could lead to ships being mistakenly targeted – even if cleared for transit.

“Iran still has significant capabilities to control shipping through the Strait,” Larsen noted, pointing to anti-ship missiles, drones, fast attack craft, coastal artillery, and naval mines.

For now, shipowners hoping for naval protection may be disappointed.

BIMCO does not expect military escorts to resume in the near term, citing the fragile nature of the ceasefire and the risks posed to warships operating in such a contested environment. Escort operations could become an option later if the truce stabilizes, but for now, uncertainty remains too high.

On the commercial side, the immediate priority is clear: get out – if possible.

BIMCO Chief Shipping Analyst Niels Rasmussen said vessels currently stuck in the Gulf will likely seek to depart as soon as conditions allow, often loading cargo first, but only if doing so doesn’t jeopardize their chance to exit within the narrow two-week window.

That window, however, may limit any broader recovery in traffic.

“Unless the two-week window is quickly lengthened, I doubt there will be a large influx of ships into the Persian Gulf,” Rasmussen said, noting that many vessels have already diverted to other regions and may be reluctant to risk becoming trapped again.

Even under a best-case scenario, the disruption is far from over.

“We welcome the conditional ceasefire between the United States and Iran and hope this signals a beginning of a return to stability in the region,” said Thomas A. Kazakos, Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping

“This news will be a relief to the 20,000 seafarers who have been at the forefront of this crisis. Our thoughts remain with those civilians and seafarers who have already been injured or sadly lost their lives,” he continued. 

“An immediate return to freedom of navigation is now essential, and states should work with shipping to ensure orderly and unimpeded transits through the Strait. This will require coordination between industry and nation states from both inside and outside the Gulf region and ICS is willing to assist this process is any way we can,” Kazakos concluded.

Oil exports are expected to remain constrained in the near term as production restarts and damaged infrastructure is repaired following weeks of conflict.

For the maritime industry, the message from BIMCO is clear: the Strait of Hormuz may be reopening, but safe passage will depend on coordination, discipline, and a ceasefire that is still very much on trial.

Editorial Standards · Corrections · About gCaptain

Subscribe for Daily Maritime Insights

Sign up for gCaptain’s newsletter and never miss an update

— trusted by our 107,293 members