US and Russia Reestablish Military Hotline After 3 Years of Silence

The United States and Russia agreed in Abu Dhabi today to reestablish high-level military-to-military communication,  a channel suspended since fall 2021, months before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The agreement follows meetings brokered in the UAE capital between Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, Commander of U.S. European Command and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, and senior Russian and Ukrainian military officials. The talks were part of a broader diplomatic push led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and senior advisor Jared Kushner to end the war.

The restored channel gives Grynkewich a direct line to Gen. Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the Russian General Staff, a link designed to reduce the risk of miscalculation between two nuclear-armed militaries operating in proximity across Europe, the Arctic, and the Black Sea.

For the maritime industry, the reestablishment of mil-to-mil contacts is significant. The Black Sea remains one of the most dangerous operating environments for commercial shipping, with ongoing drone and mine threats to merchant vessels transiting Ukrainian and Russian ports. Direct military communication between Washington and Moscow is a prerequisite for any durable framework to protect commercial navigation in the region — something the current patchwork of Ukrainian grain corridor arrangements has failed to guarantee.

Whether this channel produces real deconfliction or merely diplomatic optics will depend on what follows. The fact that it exists at all after three years of silence is, at minimum, a reduction in the probability of unintended escalation at sea and in the air.

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