Photo courtesy Port of Long Beach
Imports at major U.S. container ports is projected to continue its slowdown in the remaining weeks of 2023 after peaking later than expected this fall, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled a higher-than-expected 2.05 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in October, marking a 1.3% increase from September and a 2.5% increase from October 2022. The reported noted this was the first year-over-year increase since June 2022.
While August was initially anticipated to be the peak month with 1.96 million TEU, October surpassed September’s volume and is now expected to be the peak of the holiday shipping season, according to the NRF. In recent years, the peak has shifted to August or earlier due to port labor disputes prompting retailers to bring in merchandise ahead of the holidays to avoid potential disruptions. The most recent year that shipping peaked in October was 2020.
“Whether it was merchandise for retailers or cargo for other businesses, that’s a good sign for the economy and for the holiday shopping season. NRF expects record-setting holiday sales this year and retailers are well-stocked to meet consumer demand,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy.
NRF forecasts a 3% to 4% increase in holiday sales for 2023 compared to the previous year, in line with pre-pandemic growth rates. The projected total holiday sales are estimated to reach a record-setting range of $957.3 billion to $966.6 billion.
“The U.S. economy appears to be on a sustainable growth path as consumer demand remains buoyant,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said, noting solid Black Friday weekend sales, strong corporate profits and continued growth of gross domestic product. “It would be natural to assume that any thought of a recession is behind us, but a significant number of economists and politicians remain skeptical. As always, time will tell.”
November and December numbers have not yet been reported by ports, but Global Port Tracker projects year-over-year increases of 10.5% and 11.5%, respectively. If these projections hold, 2023 will reach a total of 22.4 million TEU, representing a 12.4% decline from last year’s volume. In 2022, imports amounted to 25.5 million TEU, a 1.2% decrease from the record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.
Looking ahead to 2024, year-over-year volume growth is expected to continue. January is projected at 1.93 million TEU, up 6.6% from the previous year. February, historically the slowest month due to Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, is forecasted to reach 1.77 million TEU, a 14.5% increase from the previous year. March and April are projected to have volumes of 1.75 million TEU (up 7.7% year over year) and 1.8 million TEU (up 1% year over year), respectively.
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