U.S. Supply Chains Show Signs of Stabilizing After Year of Tariff Turbulence

U.S. supply chains are showing early signs of recovery after a year of unprecedented tariff-driven disruption, according to project44’s December Tariff Report released today, though lingering uncertainty over legal challenges and trade policy continues to cloud the outlook for 2026.

The data reveals a maritime sector gradually returning to equilibrium following the April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs that imposed a flat 10% duty on nearly all imports and raised sector-specific rates as high as 40%. Blank sailings—canceled voyages that signal weak demand or oversupply—have declined 65% from their April peak, according to project44, demonstrating that carriers have largely restored schedule predictability after months of volatility.

“Supply chains are stabilizing after a year of tariff-driven disruption,” said Brian Cooper, CMO of project44. “Carriers have resumed more predictable schedules and importers are diversifying sourcing as shipments to and from China remain well below prior years. Indonesia and Thailand have stepped into stronger roles for US sourcing, but it’s premature to treat these shifts as permanent. A pending Supreme Court ruling and active refund lawsuits mean the policy environment is still unsettled, leaving the possibility of renewed volatility even as conditions normalize.”

The tariff overhaul, which the administration introduced on April 2, triggered immediate supply chain disruptions as companies scrambled to reassess sourcing strategies, pricing models and inventory management. April saw blank sailings surge to 131 across major U.S. trade lanes tracked by project44, with the highest concentrations on Asia-to-U.S., China-to-U.S., and U.S.-to-China routes. By November, that figure had dropped to 46—a level project44 characterizes as normal.

Trade flows between the U.S. and China have remained sharply depressed throughout 2025. U.S. imports from China are trending 28% lower through November compared to 2024, according to project44, while exports to China have fallen 41% year-to-date. However, November marked the smallest year-over-year export decline since January, down just 23%, potentially signaling early progress from recent trade discussions between the two nations.

Separate data from Descartes Systems Group’s December Global Shipping Report reinforces the picture of weakening China trade. U.S. container imports in November totaled 2,183,048 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), down 5.4% from October and 7.8% below November 2024 levels, according to Descartes. China accounted for the majority of the contraction, with volumes dropping 174,650 TEUs—a 19.7% year-over-year decline.

As China volumes have weakened, Southeast Asian suppliers have captured growing share. Project44 data shows U.S. imports from Thailand are up 33% year-to-date, while Indonesia has posted a 34% increase compared to 2024, despite both countries facing tariffs that have risen 19% since January plus product-specific surcharges.

Descartes data for November showed even stronger year-over-year growth from the region, with Vietnam up 15.4%, Thailand surging 27.2%, and Indonesia rising 18.0%.

“Beyond seasonal factors, November’s decline in U.S. container import volumes may also reflect ongoing importer caution amid a dynamic tariff backdrop,” said Jackson Wood, Director of Industry Strategy at Descartes. “While agreements between the U.S. and China have eased short-term pressure, longer-term uncertainty in the trade relationship persists. The legal challenge to IEEPA tariffs, ongoing geopolitical volatility and continued carrier caution in the Red Sea corridor are additional factors contributing to a cautious outlook for U.S. importers as the year draws to a close.”

Despite the apparent normalization in shipping schedules and emerging sourcing diversification, substantial uncertainty remains. A Supreme Court case will soon determine whether the administration’s expansive use of tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act is constitutional, and several large importers have filed lawsuits seeking refunds for duties they contend were improperly applied. With these legal battles unresolved and diplomatic negotiations ongoing, the door remains open for renewed market volatility in early 2026.

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