U.S. Container Imports Surge Expected as Shippers Brace for Potential Port Strike and Tariff Hikes

Import volumes at major U.S. container ports are projected to be higher than previously expected for the remainder of the year as retailers grapple with the looming threat of another East Coast/Gulf Coast port strike and anticipated tariff increases under President-elect Donald Trump, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation.

“October’s strike lasted only three days, but there’s the potential for a longer strike if a new labor contract is not reached after the contract extension runs out in mid-January,” warned Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. This uncertainty has prompted retailers to take preemptive action, including expediting cargo shipments and redirecting them to West Coast ports to mitigate potential disruptions.

The International Longshoremen’s Association’s brief October strike at East and Gulf Coast ports ended with a tentative agreement for a wage increase and contract extension until January 15. Formal negotiations are set to resume next week, with the industry watching closely.

“The surge in imports over the past few months has clearly been the result of contingency imports by wholesalers, retailers and industrial companies in anticipation of the East and Gulf Coast port strike rather than a sudden increase in demand,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “We may see some short-term congestion on the West Coast but nothing significant, and East Coast delays should be limited.”

Meanwhile, President-Elect Donald Trump has pledged to impose blanket tariffs of up to 20% on all imports into the U.S., with an even more stringent 60% to 100% tariff on goods from China. The threat of increased tariffs is driving some merchants to accelerate their shipments, further contributing to the unexpected import volume increase.

The Global Port Tracker’s latest figures paint a picture of continued significant growth in the coming months. September saw U.S. ports handle 2.29 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs), marking a 12.8% year-over-year increase despite a slight month-over-month decline. Projections for the coming months are equally robust, with November forecast at 2.15 million TEU (up 13.6% year-over-year) and December at 1.99 million TEU (up 6.1%).

These figures, which account for the potential port strike but not the recent election results, suggest a total of 25.3 million TEU for 2024, representing a 13.6% increase from 2023.

Looking ahead to early 2025, January is forecast at 2.01 million TEU (up 2.5% year-over-year), while February shows a 9.3% decline due to Lunar New Year-related factory shutdowns in Asia.

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