U.S. Container Imports Set for Summer Decline as New Chinese Vessel Fees Threaten Supply Chain

Major U.S. container ports are bracing for significant volume shifts in 2025, with imports expected to remain strong through spring before experiencing their first year-over-year decline since September 2023.

According to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, a proposed policy by the U.S. Trade Representative could impose substantial fees ranging from $1 million to $1.5 million each time a Chinese-built vessel docks at a U.S. port.

“Given that a significant portion of the global container fleet has been built in China, this means that there will be further costs that will be passed on to cargo owners and ultimately the consumer,” warns Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett.

The impact could reshape port rotations, with carriers likely to consolidate calls at major ports and deploy larger vessels, potentially marginalizing smaller ports.

“Ports accommodated the surge in import volume in the final quarter of 2024 without major issues, but this will place additional pressure on the supply chain while also harming the nation’s smaller ports,” noted Hackett.

Current data shows U.S. ports handled 2.22 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in January, marking a 4.4% increase from December and a 13.4% rise year over year. March projections indicate volumes of 2.14 million TEU, up 10.8% compared to last year, while April and May are forecast at 2.13 million TEU (up 5.7%) and 2.14 million TEU (up 2.8%) respectively.

However, the outlook darkens for summer, with June expected to see a 3.2% decline and July potentially facing a significant 13.9% drop to 1.99 million TEU. July’s projected volume would mark the lowest level since March 2024’s 1.93 million TEU.

“Retailers are continuing to bring as much merchandise into the country ahead of rising tariffs as possible,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “The on-again, off-again tariffs against Canada and Mexico won’t have a direct impact on port volumes because most of those goods move by truck or rail. But new tariffs on goods from China that have already doubled from 10% to 20% are a concern, as well as uncertainty over ‘reciprocal’ tariffs that could start in April. Retailers have been working on supply chain diversification, but that doesn’t happen overnight. “

Gold also emphasized the impact on consumers: “Tariffs are taxes on imports ultimately paid by consumers, not foreign countries, and American families will pay more as long as they are in place.”

Despite these challenges, the first half of 2025 is projected to reach 12.78 million TEU, representing a 5.7% increase from the previous year. This follows a robust 2024, which saw total imports of 25.5 million TEU, up 14.7% from 2023 and approaching the pandemic-era record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.

The maritime industry faces a complex period of adaptation as it navigates these new challenges, with potential restructuring of vessel deployments and port calls likely to reshape the U.S. maritime landscape in the coming months.

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