Tankers: Canada’s Crude Exports Surge as US Implements New Tariffs

Canadian crude tanker exports have skyrocketed by 59% year-to-date, reaching 618 thousand barrels per day (kbpd), up from 388 kbpd during the same period last year, according to shipping association BIMCO.

This significant increase comes as the United States implements a 10% tariff on Canadian oil imports, despite heavy reliance on Canadian crude.

The surge in exports primarily stems from the Trans Mountain Pipeline extension, which opened on May 1, 2024, expanding capacity from 300 kbpd to 890 kbpd. Vancouver has emerged as a crucial export hub, now handling 60% of total Canadian crude tanker exports, a dramatic increase from its previous 10-15% share, BIMCO’s analysis showed.

“Year-to-date, Canadian crude tanker exports have reached 618 thousand barrels per day (kbpd) up from 388 kbpd during the same period last year, an increase of 59%,” notes Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.

The expansion has particularly benefited Aframax and Panamax crude tankers, which handle 75% and 25% of Vancouver volumes respectively. While Panamax vessels primarily serve US routes, Aframax ships capitalize on longer voyages to Asia.

However, despite growing Asian market penetration, the US remains the dominant destination for Canadian seaborne crude, receiving 58% of exports, according to BIMCO. East Asia has established itself as the second-largest market, absorbing 21% of total volumes and 35% of Pacific Coast loadings, with China leading imports in the region.

Looking ahead, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects Canadian oil production to increase by 0.2 mbpd in 2025, reaching 6.23 mbpd. The Trans Mountain pipeline currently maintains 150-200 kbpd spare capacity, suggesting potential for increased Asian exports. Additionally, discussions are underway for a phase 3 expansion that could add another 300 kbpd of export capacity via Vancouver.

The recent US tariffs may reshape trade patterns, potentially redirecting US-bound cargo to Asian and European markets, thereby increasing ton-mile demand for tankers.

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