Shipping Data Shows Strait of Hormuz Transits Collapsed Ahead of Ceasefire

Maritime traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz dropped significantly on Monday ahead of the ceasefire between Iran, Israel, and the United States.

According to the Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC), eastbound transits fell to 49 vessels (>1,000 GT) and westbound to just 42 on June 23, a marked decrease from the June 2025 average of 114 total daily transits. The figures also represent a substantial decline from even the previous day, when there were 67 eastbound and 50 westbound vessels, marking the lowest number of transits since the conflict began.

The drop in maritime activity followed persistent GPS disruption in the region and Iran’s parliament approving a motion to close the Strait of Hormuz in direct response to U.S. military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. Concerns over potential Iranian retaliation likely also contributed to the decline, with some shipowners deciding to avoid the region altogether. 

Oil Sinks After Iran Targets U.S. Base—Not Tankers

JMIC data shows that daily transits through the strait were as high as 147 on June 9, just days before the Israel-Iran conflict began on June 13th. The situation has been further complicated by persistent electronic interference affecting Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) throughout the region, including in waters surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, forcing vessels to rely more heavily on radar-based navigation and traditional lookouts. Despite the heightened risks, the number of total transits through the Strait of Hormuz had remained mostly consistent until yesterday.

Iran ultimately responded to the U.S. strikes by targeting a U.S. base in Qatar, but all missiles were either intercepted or missed their targets, resulting in no casualties. The Iranians characterized their response as proportionate to the U.S. strikes, while President Trump dismissed the attack and indicated that the U.S. would not retaliate.

Prior to his surprise ceasefire announcement, President Donald Trump on Monday urged “everyone” to keep oil prices down amid fears that the ongoing conflict could cause prices to spike. “Everyone, keep oil prices down, I’m watching! You’re playing into the hands of the enemy, don’t do it,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform.

Today, Trump encouraged China to continue purchasing oil from Iran despite his administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign. “China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the U.S., also,” he stated.

The JMIC’s Update 013, released today, maintains an “ELEVATED” maritime domain threat level, emphasizing that “the strategic situation in the Strait of Hormuz and broader Middle East remains uncertain.”

Meanwhile, maritime security firm Ambrey has lowered its assessment of risks to U.S. military bases and merchant shipping following the ceasefire announcement, but warned that the conflict could restart and potentially even require U.S. involvement.

Even though a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz was never considered likely, the latest data shows how the Israel-Iran conflict with U.S. involvement risked affecting shipping volumes through the world’s most critical chokepoint for seaborne oil, accounting for approximately 20% of global oil supplies and a significant portion of natural gas.

Maritime authorities including the JMIC, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), and Maritime Security Centre – Horn of Africa (MSCIO) continue to monitor the situation closely as the maritime industry remains on high alert.

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